Australian dollar outlook 16/2/2011
Australia: The Australian Dollar has opened weaker thismorning, currently trading around the USD0.9970, level asbase metals and equities finished lower overnight.Yesterday saw the release of the Australian RBA Minutes,which had a positive outlook on the Australian economy,despite the recent floods damage. The RBA appears to beon hold for a few months as RBA Governor Glen Stevensmentioned on Friday that the Board feels that rates arewhere they should be. Base metals took a breatherovernight with copper down 1.5%, nickel down 0.5% andzinc down 1.3%. Yesterday's release of the Chinese CPIcame in better than expected, up 4.9% year on year inJanuary. Today locally will see the release of theAustralian Skilled Vacancies, January motor vehicle salesand the December leading index. With the AUD below1.0000 we would expect to see some demand fromexporters with the AUD well supported on any dips belowparity.
Majors: In the US overnight equity markets finishedweaker with the Dow off 0.3%, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% andthe Nasdaq down 0.5% following some weaker thanexpected data releases. US retail sales reported a rise of0.3% for January, lower than the consensus forecast for arise of 0.5%, while the November and December saleswere revised lower. The NAHB Housing Index came inunchanged at 16 for February while the Empiremanufacturing reported a rise to 15.4 in February from11.9 in January. Meanwhile in Europe Euro-zone GDProse 0.3% in the fourth quarter with Germany +0.4%,France +0.3% and Italy +0.1%. Tonight will see a raft ofdata releases in the US starting with US PPI, Industrialproduction, housing starts, building permits and the MBAmortgage applications.
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