Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar traded in a narrow range on Friday night after the volatile moves of the past week as markets look forward this week to clues on the stimulus programs of both the US Federal Reserve and RBA.

Australia: This morning the AUD has opened in the mid 0.9500's after some fairly wild movements last week. With speculation mounting on the likely nature of future quantitative measures by the US Federal Reserve and the release of the RBA minutes from this month's meeting to occur tomorrow, we expect the recent volatility in the FX markets to subside over
the next couple of days.

This could change when tomorrow morning at 11:30 am AEST we see the minutes of the RBA meeting from earlier this
month. This month's statement was very brief and the market will be looking for further clues about the intention of the RBA to further lowering the overnight cash rate to stimulate our local economy.

Locally today we will see new vehicle sales for May. Along with the RBA minutes tomorrow we will see the NSW state budget. Later in the week the flash HSBC manufacturing PMI data from China could spark some volatility in the AUD on Thursday. The RBA Bulletin will also be released that day.

Majors: Over the weekend the IMF lowered the forecast for US GDP growth in 2014 from 3% to 2.7% which was forecast in April. Growth in this calendar year is still estimated to be 1.9%.

On Friday, US PPI advanced by 0.5% in May and is now only 0.1% higher year on year. Industrial production for May was unchanged while the US current account deficit was in deficit by USD106.1bn for Q1.

The University of Michigan's preliminary June survey of consumer sentiment fell to 82.7 versus the previous month's level of 84.5. US share markets were down on Friday after a fairly volatile week of moves while the major European market indices were generally modestly higher.

All eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve's two day meeting which concludes on our Wednesday night for further hints on the pace of the USD85bn current monthly bond and mortgage backed security buying program. Markets know the stimulatory program will end eventually but the timing and size of the tapering program is subject to much speculation.