Australian dollar outlook 17/02/2011
Australia: The AUD is back above parity against theUSD this morning after a brief pullback during yesterday's session. The AUD remains well supported on dips asexporter interest remains solid. BHP Billiton Ltd, the world's largest mining company, reported a record first half profit yesterday of $10.5bio. Such a result only serves to highlight the positive outlook for Australian commodity exports and economic growth. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia said in minutes of its February meeting released yesterday that the current "slightly restrictive" policy is appropriate. With our interest rates at relatively high levels compared to the rest of the developed world, and our commodity export market still strong, it is hard to envisage any decent pullback in the AUD anytime soon.The NZD has managed to gain some ground back against the USD after Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd said wholemilk powder prices rose to the highest level since July2008.
Majors: A large amount of US data was released overnight, with the market interpreting the results to begenerally quite positive. US housing starts were up byclose to 15% in January - a much better result than the market had been expecting. Manufacturing was also up by0.3% in January. The US Federal Reserve minutes fromthe January meeting were also released overnight, showing the Fed policy makers took a slightly more optimistic view of the US economy but remain frustrated by the stubbornly high unemployment rate. The USD wassold off against most of the other majors on the back ofthese events. The USD subsequently managed to gain back some ground after Israel announced that Iran was planning to sail two warships through the Suez Canal. Crude oil prices were higher overnight due to the ongoing tensions in the Middle East.