Australian Dollar Outlook - 18/10/2012
Bell FX Currency Outlook: Increasing investor confidence saw the Australian Dollar continue to climb overnight trading to 1.0380's.
Australia: The Australian dollar traded to a high of 1.0389 against a weaker US dollar overnight, as Spain avoids a downgrade to "junk" status and a surprisingly strong US housing number read.
The local unit is also generally stronger against the crosses as investor confidence improved with equities, metals and commodity prices all generally stronger ahead of key Chinese data due today.
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao announced yesterday that he expects China's growth to stabilise in the third quarter and he expects the GDP to be around 7.5%. Market expectation is for GDP growth to have slowed to 7.4% y/y with Chinese Retail Sales
expected at 13.2% for September.
Both the Industrial Production and GDP will be important for Australia, with the currency likely to consolidate ahead of the data.
Majors: Equity markets rose for a third day as US housing data was much stronger than expected overnight. Building permits rose 11.6% to 894k and housing starts rose 15% to 872k. The positive read overshadowed disappointing earnings results from IBM and Intel Corp which capped gains on US equity markets.
The DJIA rose 0.1% to 13,559, whilst the S&P 500 ended 0.5% higher at 1,462. European equities also rose for a third consecutive session following Moody's decision to leave Spain's credit rating unchanged with a negative outlook.
Growing speculation Spain will ask for a bailout as soon as next month lifted the Euro, which is its highest level since mid-September above 1.3100.
The FTSE ended the session 0.7% higher at 5,911 whilst the German DAX ended 0.2% higher at 7,395. Spot gold prices rose partly due to a weaker US dollar and a jump in risk sentiment ending the session up 0.1% at USD 1,749 per ounce.
Oil prices were generally weaker overnight on rising US crude stockpiles. Brent fell 0.8% to USD 113.0 per barrel while ETI futures fell 0.3% to USD 92.0 per barrel.
Economic Calendar
18 OCT AU NAB Business Conditions
AU RBA's Edey Speaks
CH Retail Sales. Industrial Production,GDP
UK Retail Sales
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