Australian Dollar Outlook - 19 June 2013
Bell FX Currency Outlook: The RBA minutes released yesterday leaves the door open to further cuts in interest rates.
Australia: RBA Board members noted that the dollar had fallen broadly, reflecting further declines in commodity prices, market concerns about the outlook for China as well as the rate cut in May.
The RBA is trying to engineer a smooth transition away from mining led growth, whilst dealing with lower public demand. The currency markets saw limited action, but once again, the AUD was the underperformer. In the late Asian overnight session the AUD did breach 0.9500.
Well done to the Socceroos, off to Rio de Janeiro, even if it took until the 84th minute of the final qualifying game to get there!
Majors: Participants wait on the sidelines ahead of the FOMC tonight, it is expected that Bernanke will calm markets and carefully communicate the Feds exit strategy. Also, the Fed will signal that any change in monetary policy is likely to be incremental and designed to be non-disruptive.
In an interview overnight, President Obama signalled that Chairman Bernanke won't be re-appointed when his term expires 31 January.
Lauding his efforts through the GFC saying "Ben's done an outstanding job", the President said Bernanke's already stayed a lot longer than he wanted or he was supposed to. Trading ranges were small across all asset classes, with the funds not prepared to push things too far ahead of the meeting.
Europe still seems to be holding up. Wall Street has rallied again, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surging by 0.91 per cent, marking the sixth consecutive session where the index moved more than 100 points in a single session. The broadbased S&P 500 gained 0.78 per cent.
Economic Calendar
19 JUNE US FOMC Decision/Forecasts
US Fed's Bernanke Holds Press Confrence