Australian Dollar Outlook 19/10/2010
Australia: The AUD has opened this morning higher after weak sentiment towards the USD continued overnight; currently just trading around USD0.9900.
Some disappointing US manufacturing data and further discussions about the possible quantitative easing in the US saw investors reduce their holdings of USD.
The poor results did little to spook the equity markets though, with the DOW & the S&P gaining 0.7% and the Nasdaq up 0.5% on the back of Citigroup's better than expected profit result.
The possibility of quantitative easing was also viewed as positive by investors. Today all eyes will be on the RBA's October mintues which are due to be released this afternoon.
The RBA surprised the markets by keeping the local cash rate on hold at 4.5%, with the large majority of investors predicting and increase.
Most will be keen to see what the reasoning behind this decision was, and whether it was induced by the continued concern over the
global economy or whether the strengthening AUD is having an affect on their decision; and also the likely timing of the next interest rate rise.
Majors: The quantitative easing discussions just won't go away.
Overnight one of the FOMC voting members , Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart gave a speech saying that he was "leaning in favour of additional monetary stimulus " and that the program "would need to be reasonably large".
The weaker US manufacturing data that was mentioned above relates to industrial production; the US factory output, which is the largest component of industrial production weakened by 0.2%.
The US has a large raft of data due out tonight including the Housing data for Sept, as well as many speeches by members of
the FOMC, which could give further indication as to the likely timing of the always mentioned quantitative easing.
The EUR/USD had a see-sawing night. The currency pair was weaker early during the offshore session as the USD
found some initial strength, but then reversed as the talk of QE continued.
But today' comments from US Treasury Secretary Geithner talking up the USD has weakened the pair further.
Some ECB members aren't too happy with the current strength of the EUR, so we could see this volatility continue in the weeks to come.
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