Australian Dollar Outlook 19/8/2010
Australia: The Australian Dollar is steady after a relatively quiet night on the economic data front gave the markets little to draw on as far as the state of the economic recovery in the US and Europe is concerned.
The AUD has had a "sell tone" since yesterday's release of the Westpac/Melbourne Institute's index of economic activity, which pointed to a slowdown in the domestic economy over the next nine months.
The AUD is a tad lower against the Greenback at USD 0.8975, AUD/EUR opens lower at 0.6980 while AUD/JPY is lower too at 76.70.
Crude oil fell on reports that US stockpiles were increasing, raising concerns excess supply might hamper demand.
Spot gold rose on safe haven buying and LME Copper increased 1.8% on stronger demand for exports.
Yesterday saw Moody's stating it would review the credit rating of the world's biggest miner, BHP Billiton, following the latter's takeover bid for Canada's Potash group.
The offer, worth the equivalent of EUR 31bn would allow the energy and metals giant to expand in the agricultural sector amid soaring wheat prices and keen food demand to meet the needs of the world's rising population.
Yesterday's data on the Australian Labour market showed wage rises have ticked up this year but despite this, the RBA's inflation target is not being "approached" and it is possible the run up in job advertising over the last 12 or so months may be losing some of its zip. Some slow down in recruitment is not unrealistic as business assesses labour needs for the next 12 months.
Not much of note in the way of Australian data. Other releases around the world are a mix of important and not so, with an "important" one being the US weekly jobless claims data as it covers the week of the non-farm payroll survey.
We see a relatively steady day today with AUD likely to be restricted to ~ 0.8965 to 0.9055.
Majors: The US 30 year yield touched an all-time low as lower rates are not showing traction so far as stimulating economic activity as Americans do what a lot of us are doing, and that is to repair balance sheets rather than spend on the assumption all will be rosy over the next 1-2 years.
The Bank of England voted 8-1 to keep rates steady with the same dissenter voting for a hike.
Tonight sees Germany's July Producers price Index along with UK retail sales, whilst the US has the important weekly jobless claims data, the Philadelphia Fed Index for August and a speech on the US economy from St Louis President James Bullard.