Australian Dollar Outlook - 21 February 2014

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar fell quickly after a disappointing flash manufacturing PMI number from China yesterday afternoon but has recovered to open the day around the .9000 level.

Australia: The AUD can rise and fall very quickly when the numbers out of China are good or bad and we saw that yesterday afternoon when February's flash manufacturing PMI came in at 48.3 when a figure of 49.5 was predicted. A figure under 50 indicates contraction in the economy and the AUD fell immediately a half a cent but has since recovered overnight to trade to similar levels before the announcement. We will not see any further figures from China until early in March. Economic data from the US overnight was generally weaker although with recent severe weather in many parts of the US the importance of some of the numbers was discounted. Today in Sydney the three day G20 summit of finance ministers begins.

Majors: In the US, the Markit preliminary PMI data for February was higher at 56.7 than the previous reading of 53.7 and the estimate of 53.6. The Philadelphia Fed business outlook was weaker at -6.3 vs. the forecast of 8.0 and the prior month's reading of 9.4. Weather is thought to have affected this figure significantly. Inflation continues to not be a factor with January's CPI coming in at 0.1% mom and 1.65% yoy. Weekly jobless were only a touch higher at 336k as compared to 335k expected and the previous week's figure of 339k. Tonight we will see some existing house sales figures. In Europe, PMI services data for February was a touch stronger from 51.6 to 51.7 while the manufacturing figures fell slightly from 54 to 53. The Eurozone is on track to record some growth in their GDP with the latest estimates being an expansion of 0.8% for 2014 which compares to the 0.4% contraction in 2013. In the UK tonight we see some retail sales figures for January. Overall we expect a very quiet day in FX markets.

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