Australian Dollar Outlook - 21 November 2011
From Bell FX Currency Outlook:
The AUD has opened little changed from Friday around the 1.0000 level, with financial markets subdued and attention more focussed on politics in Europe and America.
Australia: Equity markets both in Europe and the US did not experience some of the wild movements we have seen of late. All major European indices were modestly lower (the FTSE fell the most at 1.1%) after being up initially, on rumours the ECB was contemplating funding via the IMF to assist purchase European sovereign debt issues.
The US market was unchanged although an index of leading indicators for October was up by 0.9% as compared to market expectations of a rise of 0.6%.
Commodities were generally mixed and gold stabilised at US$1,724 an ounce after its sharp fall on Thursday. Oil weakened slightly from its 6 weeks highs of last week, to finish at just under US$98 a barrel for WTI and US$107 for Brent.
This week in Australia there are speeches by the RBA's Stevens (Thursday) and Debelle (today and Wednesday) as well as construction work data for Q3 on Wednesday. Also that day we see China's flash PMI
data.
Trading in the latter part of the week is likely to be muted due to the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.
Majors: The new interim Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti passed his final confidence vote and Spain went to the polls this weekend where it was expected the centre-right opposition would win government. Yields on European sovereign debt issues again fell as the ECB went into the market to buy the bonds.
Yields fell to below 7% pa for Italian bonds. The new ECB President Mario Draghi's words were somewhat different than the ECB's actions when he publicly rejected more direct buying of sovereign debt issues and emphasised that keeping prices stable was the
best thing for growth, employment, and financial stability.
The anticipation in the US of a major public brawl between Republicans and Democrats on the "super committee" which have to deliver a package of US$1.5tr of budget cuts over 10 years to US federal budget by Wednesday fizzled as Republicans flatly reject any tax increases proposed by the Democrats.
It looks like that automatic budget cuts will begin In January, 2013.
Economic Calendar
21 NOV US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index OCT
US Fed Lockhart (non-voter) speaks on economy
EU Euro Zone Current Accounts SEP
JN Merchandise Trade Balance OCT