Australian dollar outlook 2/2/2011
Australia: The Australian Dollar regained some moreground after the release of stronger than expected globalmanufacturing activity in China, Europe and the US.Accordingly, stock markets were strong with the Dowleading the way, up 140 points to trade over 12,000.
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Yesterday, the main news locally was the first RBA Board meeting in 2011 in which rates were left unchanged at4.75%, with the Bank seemingly comfortable with theinflation environment .The Bank stated it would "seethrough" the initial price rises due to the floods and notedtheir medium term inflation forecasts were unlikely tochange much which to the markets, implies a mildtightening bias still.
Crude oil eased overnight as marketconcerns regarding the civil unrest in Egypt settled afterthe army committed not to fire on protesters.
The WTI Futures March contract fell 1.7% to USD90.66 per barrel. Base metals continued this week's rise on the LME afterthe positive manufacturing data and agriculturalcommodities were mixed.
Locally today the markets andindeed "non markets" are watching Cyclone Yasi developments out Queensland which is expected to hit thecoast later tonight.
The storm has been upgraded to aCategory 5, with wind speeds of 300kmh. Queensland'slast major cyclone was Larry, which caused A$1bndamage and affected 10,000 homes, so the potential economic impact of Yasi is significant.
New Home Salesare being released today and we see the AUD holding itsgains and potentially pushing higher following last night's international manufacturing reports.
Majors: The US Dollar weakened slightly despite thestronger US Data but this reaction is in line with theGreenback's behaviour when healthy global economic data is released.
China's PMI Manufacturing was solid, Europe's PMI was revised up significantly, and the USISM jumped to 60.8 with the employment componentrising to 61.7, the highest in 38 years.
Although this mayraise some concerns over inflation, it is likely to have little impact on Fed policy given the persistence of low coreinflation and high unemployment.
The US ADP Employment Report is due tonight along with the EuroZone PPI as focus on inflation intensifies slightly.
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