Australian Dollar Outlook 31/8/2010
Australia: With the AUD trading just bellow USD0.9000 for the majority of yesterday's local trading session, the AUD has fallen about a cent overnight as concerns over the US economy resurfaced after a very short term period of renewed confidence.
With mixed economic data released last night in the US, the market decided to focus on the negative personal income result, rather than the increase in personal spending.
This saw US equity markets fall; and with it fell the AUD. The DOW was down 1.4%, finishing just above the 10,000 level at 10,010.
The S&P was also weaker, down 1.5% and the Nasdaq falling 1.6%. Today there is a large amount of local economic data due to be released and will take up the attention of most investors as markets seek direction.
Retail sales, building approvals and private sector credit for July and the second quarter current account balance will help to indicate the likely GDP result due out tomorrow.
The RBA will be paying close attention to these releases today as it will be able to gain further indication on how the domestic economy is coping and how the households are dealing with the interest rate hikes this year.
Majors: As mentioned above, the markets were weaker overnight, mainly due to the data releases in the US. An increase in personal spending by 0.4% (above market expectations of 0.3%) did little to comfort the market, with them instead focusing on the weaker result.
Personal income for July came in lower than expected at 0.2% compared to expectations of 0.3% increase.
Manufacturing activity for August was also weaker than expected, posting a 13.5% decrease compared to a 10% expected decrease.
The main data due out this week in the US is the non-farm payrolls which will be released Friday night.
Yesterday during the local session the Bank of Japan decided to ease monetary policy as pressure over the faltering economy forced them into action.
While most investors were expecting the BOJ to intervene with some significant stimulus measures, what they announced was fairly minor.
To boost liquidity the BOJ will expand a low interest program for financial institutions by JPY10trillion.
This immediately saw the JPY strengthen against the USD and this continued overnight as safe haven flows increased the demand for the currency. USD/JPY opens this morning at 84.60.
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