Australian Dollar Outlook – 4-9-13

Bell FX Currency Outlook: The Australian Dollar has opened back above USD1.0400 this morning after a very quiet day of trade yesterday.

Australia: After spending the local session trading in a fairly narrow range the AUD managed to trade higher as FX markets positioned themselves ahead of upcoming economic data in China and Australia. The AUD also extended its gains versus the JPY, climbing to JPY103.49 from JPY102.28. It seems that investors continue to aggressively sell the JPY since the Bank of Japan announced last week that they will print trillions of JPY to pump money into the current sluggish economy. The surprise announcement by the BOJ last week has seen the JPY sold off against most major currencies. The focus however will shift to China today and tomorrow where they are expected to release inflation and trade numbers. Investors are expecting China's year-on-year consumer inflation likely eased to 2.4% in March from 3.2% in February. The inflation numbers will be scrutinized to gauge the need for an immediate policy tightening by Chinese authorities. Locally we have the latest NAB monthly business survey due for release. This is ahead of important Australian job figures due for release on Thursday.

Majors: US equities were higher overnight, erasing earlier losses as investors waited for the "unofficial" start of the earnings-reporting season. In Europe, upbeat data out of Germany helped offset some concerns over Portugal. Asian markets were mostly lower amid rising concerns over the latest outbreak of avian flu on the mainland. Chinese shares fell to a three and a half month low but it has been noted that the outbreak may only be a short-lived risk. The USD was mixed posting gains against the GBP and the JPY but falling against the EUR, AUD and CHF.

Economic Calendar

09 APR AU NAB Business Confidence/Conditions

CH Consumer Price Index

UK Total Trade Balance

US Fed's Bernanke speaks at Atlanta Fed Conference

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