Australian dollar outlook 4/2/2011
Australia: The AUD has opened almost half a US centhigher today, supported by high commodity prices.
Despite rising tensions in Egypt and the ECB leaving itsrates unchanged in Europe the AUD held onto its recentgains, performing extremely well in mixed overnight trade.
Crude oil hit its highest level since September 2008, thegold price rose 1% and copper prices hit a record high at$10,000 a tonne.
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With the commodity prices elevated theAUD managed to shrug off the less hawkish statementfrom President Trichet after the ECB left interest ratesunchanged at 1.0%.
The AUD rallied to a high ofUSD1.0160 after touching a low of USD1.0083. During thelocal session today, the Reserve Bank of Australiareleases its quarterly monetary policy statement.
The market will be looking for signs on when the next interestrate rise might be and what effect the Queenslanddisasters have had on the rate outlook.
Majors: The EUR fell sharply against the USD Thursdaynight after European Central Bank President Jean-ClaudeTrichet further dampened market expectations aboutraising key interest rates in the near future.
After leavingrates unchanged (as expected), the accompanyingstatement acknowledged the short-term pressure oninflation but noted that the inflation risks remain well 'anchored".
This was not what the market had expectedand as a result we saw the EUR sharply lower. Its was adifferent story in the US where Fed Reserve ChairmanBen Bernanke had a slightly more optimistic tone on thepace of the US recovery, with the Fed Chairman issuingwhat investors interpreted as a more rosy assessment ofthe US labor market.
Tonight in the US, Non-farm payrollsemployment data is due, with the market forecasting 125kto 140k new jobs added in January.
Any sort of number below these forecasts will see the USD under pressure.
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