Australian economy to boom within a decade
Australia's economy is set to boom within the next 10 years, according to a leading economist.
Speaking in Brisbane on Tuesday, BIS Shrapnel chief economist Frank Gelber said all of the pre-conditions that caused the global financial crisis have disappeared.
He expects the domestic economy to boom as a result of the strong exports to the flourishing continent of Asia, a robust resource sector and fiscal stimulus during the GFC.
"The mining drivers are here for another five years at least," he said.
"Five years from now this economy is going to be really strong coming from an undersupplied, under capacity situation.
"The boom won't mature in 18 months. It will take six or seven years, or eight or nine."
To be more specific, Queensland had strongly regained health, as it was the first state to experience the hardest GFC impact.
"There was a time where year-on-year went negative, but they are strongly positive again," said Dr Gelber.
According to him mining was not the only factor buoying the economy, as the stimulus was largely responsible for repelling the impact of the GFC.
"We would have had a recession had it not been for a very strong household handouts and government investment," he said.
Exports are another saviour, with nearly 80 per cent of shipments going to Asia, according to Dr Gelber.
"The strength of Asia is been an incredible windfall for us," he said.
The unemployment rate will also fall below 5 per cent by mid 2011, which means Australia will run into labour and capacity constraints two years from now.
"Then we'll see the re-emergence of demand inflationary pressure and the Reserve Bank freaking out because inflation's going up."
"And they'll fight it with rising interest rates and will cut the housing boom in the bud before we have a chance to supply our under supplied markets."
He predicts the US, the UK and some European markets will need more than a decade to recuperate.
Australia's situation is totally different from overseas and the country is emerging from a relatively mild downturn, he said.