Australian Economy ‘Out Of Luck’ And 40 Percent Chance Of Recession Says Gerard Minack--Report
Australia may be heading for a recession in 2015. According to Gerard Minack, the former head of developed market strategy at Morgan Stanley, the scenario for the economy is not very promising and there is a 40 percent chance of a recession.
"Australia has run out of luck," Mr. Minack has reportedly said according to Yahoo!. He is said to be one of the experts who warned of a market crash in early 2007 after seeing the building of debt in the financial system at that time.
Mr. Minack believes that most of the scenarios for the Australian economy point to lower dollar, lower interest rates and underperforming equities. The report also points to the country's stock market losing 4 percent of the value in 2014 while the U.S S&P 500 grew by 8 percent and the Shanghai Composite grew by 40 percent.
A possible recession in 2015 will reportedly have a major impact on two specific sectors in the economy. Losses in equities of the banks are expected to be steep and the prices of houses will witness "significant falls," according to Mr. Minack.
According to Mike Mangan, the Fund Manager at 2MG Asset management, the central banks across the globe are propping up the markets by buying bonds and offering zero interest rates. The situation has reportedly led to investors losing confidence.
According to Mr. Mangan, the falling prices of commodities such as iron ore and oil point to a fundamental weakness in the global economy and the central banks around the world will not be able to solve the problem by printing more money.
The recently released quarterly Choice Consumer Pulse Report also points to falling consumer confidence in the Australian economy. According to ABC the survey of more than a 1000 Australians shows that about a third of the respondents have rated the economy as poor.
According to the report, Australians have cut spending on entertainment and clothing. 66 percent of the respondents will reportedly cut spending on holidays. The spending cuts are reportedly due to concerns about unemployment and income. Is the global economy heading for a recession in 2015? Please post your comments below.