Australian economy posts firm growth in October, signals slower expansion ahead
The Australian economy moderately grew in October but economists expressed optimism that the firm movement signals calculated expansion and not deceleration.
According to the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute annualised growth rate released on Wednesday, leading index indicator improved by 4.1 percent in October and still in line with the country's long-term growth trend of 3.3 percent.
Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan said that the surge clearly indicated that Australia's economic activity is firming up but when the numbers are compared to the March level of 9.7 percent, it can be deduce that a sharp slow down has been transpiring.
Hassan clarified though that the figures appear tricky as the overall economic environment "so far implies a cooling off from unsustainably strong growth rates to a more moderate pace of expansion rather than outright weakness."
He noted too that when pitted against the ongoing economic activities, the results' coincident index signified some slow downs in economic developments and growth momentum seemed to crawl below established marks, which is the first indication of deceleration since December last year.
Also, the index emitted signals that point to an annualised growth rate of 3.1 percent in October, which is a detraction from the long-term trend of 3.5 percent and Hassan offered that the snags could be caused by the 1.2 percentage points decline in overtime works.
Culprits too, he added, were the one percentage point retreat in corporate profits and the figures surrounding productivity growth and commodity prices, which he said both plunged by 0.9 percentage points.
The December move of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold off any cash rate movement had effectively abetted the sudden burst of economic expansion earlier in the year, which Hassan said was an unsustainable movement anyway.
Basing on its decision, Westpac noted that the RBA clearly gravitates toward moderate growth instead of pushing for a wide-ranging but hard-to-manage expansion, indicating the central bank's forward-looking goals, which could also mean that no rate hikes would happen come the February board meeting of RBA.