The Australian Stock Market Drivers - The Good and The Bad - 13 January 2012
The European and U.S. stock markets took positive turns last night, which could bode well to keep Australian stock markets afloat on Friday.
Analysts from IG Markets and OptionsXpress by Charles Schwabb, said investors were quite forgiving of the bad news generated by the U.S. economic data.
IG Markets Cameron Peacock believes a positive outcome for the Australian stock markets:
"Turning to the local market, the ASX 200 is set to open firmer today, with the benchmark index called to unwind 23 points or 0.6% higher at 4205. Based on US leads, we can once again expect to see materials, industrials and financial names pacing gains. What will be of interest today is how investors view the 4200 level. So far this year we have managed to get to 4202 on a few occasions, but have been unable to sustain this level with there definitely being some degree of resistance around the 4200 mark. Overnight we saw the S&P 500 close marginally above its most recent high of 1292, so there is a definite feeling that markets want to move north. Overnight we saw modest USD weakness lead to another strong night for the base metals complex, which should once again support our major miners. BHP's ADR is suggesting the local stock will open 56 cents or 1.5% higher at $36.93. It would be nice to see the local market end the week with a convincing close above 4200."
Market strategist Ben LeBrun from OptionsXpress, on the other hand, pointed out the difficulties faced by the Australian insurance industry that hampered QBE shares yesterday.
"QBE yesterday sapped market confidence. Their dividend, which you could set your watch to, was hammered. Everything from floods, earth quakes and tsunamis has played its part on the QBE downgrade for 2011. After a decade worth of good performances the insurer may have been overdue for a shocker and 2011 proved to be the year. They were duly punished by traders with their share price being down as much as 23% at one stage. Other stocks in the sector such as IAG were also punished. There is speculation that with the high cost of reinsurance, the insurance sector could be the new retail sector in Australia in 2012. Perhaps it is a little early for such dramatic statements. However what price can you put on natural disasters? Surely one bad year clears the decks for a few years of smooth sailing? One thing is for certain, reinsurers wont price that in."