Australian Stock Market Report - Morning 3/9/2012

MORNING REPORT
(8am AEDT)

New claims for unemployment insurance in the US rose by 8,000 to 362,000 in the latest week, ahead of forecasts near 351,000. The four-week average of claims was 355,000, up from 354,750. Planned job layoffs by companies stood at 51,728 in February according to the Challenger survey, down 3.3pct on January.

German industrial production rose by 1.6pct in January after falling by 2.6pct in January. Production grew by 1.8pct in the year to January. The European Central Bank left rates unchanged at 1pct and revised down economic growth forecasts for 2012 from +0.5pct to -0.3pct.

European shares rose on Thursday on increasing optimism that creditors would agree to the Greek debt swap deal. Mining stocks rose: in London trade shares in Rio Tinto rose by 2.7pct with BHP Billiton up 1.5pct. The benchmark FTSEurofirst 300 index rose by 1.5pct with the UK FTSE up 1.2pct while the German Dax gained 2.5pct.

US sharemarkets posted firm gains for a second day on hopes that the Greek debt deal would succeed. Shares in Apple rose by 1.6pct after unveiling its new iPad late on Wednesday. At the close of trade, the Dow Jones index was higher by 70pts or 0.6pct. The S&P 500 rose by 1.0pct and the Nasdaq gained 34pts or 1.2pct.

US long-term treasuries eased again on Thursday (yields higher) as optimism about a Greek debt deal offset softer-than-expected jobs data. The Federal Reserve purchased $5.105 billion of Treasuries maturing August 2020 through August 2021. US 2yr yields were flat at 0.306pct and US 10yr yields rose by 4pts to 2.02pct.

Major currencies were mixed against the greenback in European and US trade on Thursday ahead of the Greek debt deadline and US jobs data. The Euro rose from lows near US$1.3165 to around US$1.3270, and was near US$1.3260 in late US trade. The Aussie dollar held between US105.90c and US106.70c, and was close to US106.40c in late US trade. And the Japanese yen held between 81.26 yen per US dollar and JPY81.72 and was near JPY81.60 in late US trade.

Benchmark crude oil prices rose again on Thursday. The US dollar eased, improving the purchasing power of oil buyers in Europe and Asia while there was optimism about a successful Greek debt deal. US Nymex rose by US42c or 0.4pct to US$106.58 a barrel while London Brent crude rose by US$1.32 to US$125.44 a barrel.

Base metal prices were generally higher on Thursday. Tin rose 2.4pct with zinc up 1.9pct and lead up 1.8pct but nickel lost 0.5pct with aluminium down 0.1pct. The gold price also rose in line with other commodities as the US dollar softened with the April Comex gold price up by US$14.80 or 0.9pct to US$1,698.70 an ounce.

Ahead: In Australia, the monthly trade figures are released. In China, inflation, retail sales and production data are due. In the US, non-farm payrolls data is released. Final details on the Greek debt deal are due at 5pm Sydney time.

Craig James, CommSec Chief Economist

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