Export earnings from the rural and mineral resources sectors are expected to reach a record of $256 billion in 2011-12, according to the Australian commodities-June quarter 2011 report, released by ABARES today.

ABARES acting Deputy Executive Director, Kim Ritman, said “This forecast of commodity export earnings in 2011-12 represents an increase of 18 per cent from an estimated $218 billion in 2010-11 and an upward revision from the forecast released in March."

The value of farm exports is forecast to increase by close to 7 per cent in 2011-12 to $34.1 billion, following an estimated rise of 12 per cent to $32 billion in 2010-11.

“This forecast increase mainly reflects expected higher farm production and a favourable outlook for agricultural prices on world markets, which is expected to more than offset the impact of a strong Australian exchange rate, especially against the US dollar,” Dr Ritman said.

“Agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2011-12 include wheat, oilseeds, rice, raw cotton, wine, wool and sheep meat.

“These increases are forecast to more than offset expected lower export earnings for barley, sugar, beef and veal, grain sorghum and some dairy products in 2011-12.”

Earnings from energy and minerals exports are forecast to increase by 20 per cent in 2011-12 to around $218 billion, following an estimated rise of 31 per cent to $182 billion in 2010-11.

The value of energy exports is forecast to rise by 25 per cent to $89 billion in 2011-12. Earnings from exports of metals and other minerals are forecast to increase by 17 per cent to around $130 billion in 2011-12.

“Forecast increases in export prices and shipments for Australian iron ore and metallurgical coal are the main reasons for the expected increase in mineral resources exports,” Dr Ritman said.

“Strong export performance is also expected for other commodities including thermal coal, gold and alumina.”

In 2011-12, the volume of mine production is forecast to rise by 10 per cent, having increased by an estimated 2 per cent in 2010-11. This forecast increase in mine production in 2011-12 is based on the assumption of a year largely free of major production disruptions.