Australia's latest trade surplus posted declines from previous month, achieving only $1.38 billion in November as compared to the seasonally adjusted $1.42 billion in the month before, according to new figures released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The latest numbers, analysts said, fell short from the earlier target of $1.7 billion and many economists believe that the country's surplus will begin shrinking as demands for commodities continue to plunge while imports edge up, mainly kicked by machineries being acquired by mining firms.

Contrary to earlier claims by Federal Treasurer Wayne Swan that the Asia demand for Australia's commodity shipments will further heat up, exports delivered in the region in the month retreated by 8 percent, as shown by the ABS data, amidst continued rise on orders placed by China and South Korea.

According to economists from the ANZ and the Commonwealth Bank, they had been expecting the slide, believing that the country has already reached the surplus peak and the only way to go is a gradual dip in the months ahead.

Swan's declaration last week was corrected by the November shipments of metal ores and minerals, which totalled to only $249 million in the month, detracting from previous projections and decreasing instead by 4 percent, ABS data indicated.

Yet no immediate alarm bells should be sounded, according to CBA economist John Peters, who predicted that the deficit will likely balance out in the immediate months on the back of surpluses to be seen, though admittedly lesser than earlier forecasted.

According to ABS, exports expanded by 0.2 percent in November but at the same time imports grew by 0.4 percent, owing much to resources equipments entering the country and the latest upgrades implemented by the civil aviation industry.

The difference, however, was considerably covered by the rise in agricultural shipment and gold deliveries, which ABS said rose by one percent in the same period.

What got the concern of many economists is the distressing signals that the retail and service sector continue to emit.

In the latter, the latest Performance Services Index jointly issued by the Australian Industry Group and CBA pegged the numbers at 49 in December, increasing actually but not enough to shore up declining revenues recorded in the month by retail outlets and other service-centred establishments.

The recent holiday sales failed to prop up sentiments in the retail industry as consumer confidence remain cautious at best and went to stores tightly conducting careful shopping, delivering benefits that retailers characterised as mere inventory-cleaning measures.

Posting significant margins is another story, retailers said, who mostly were kept by the downtrend to replenish their stocks, further creating an overall gloomy outlook for the sector.

As consumers opted to hold on to their cash, economists are banking on the thought that capital investment will likely fill this year the void created by weak spending seen last year.