Australia's employment heats up, more job postings--ANZ Bank
Australia's labour market has once more risen in September on account of job postings on newspapers and the Internet, the ANZ Bank said in a statement today.
On a year-on-year basis, local companies in the month of September put more job-related advertisements on different forms of media primarily newspapers and online rising 32.9 percent compared to same period last year.
ANZ noted that these numbers are still below the historic high of 40.2 percent that was achieved in May 2007 and below the all-time peak reached in April 2008, they are still promising although a tightening in the domestic labour market is seen in the coming month.
"This suggests that hiring intentions of Australian businesses are solid and that further falls in the unemployment rate are in prospect," said ANZ Bank economist Warren Hogan. "Continued growth in job advertisements over September increases the likelihood that the unemployment rate will fall below 5 percent by year-end."
The bank also noted: "while job advertising eased in September, we note that the monthly rate of growth in trend terms, at 1.3 percent, is still more than double the 10-year average of 0.6 percent.
ANZ predicted: "these positive employment intentions will translate into solid employment growth, of an average of 20,000 per month, in the short-term. However the September employment report from the ABS, due on Thursday 7 October, is expected to show slightly softer employment growth of around 17,000 persons as full-time employment cools following the sharp 53,100 increase recorded in August."
As the growth in employment numbers increase, there might also be rise in the demand for higher wages. Thus, the ANZ Bank saw it fitting that an upward adjustment in the interest rates will be seen after the central bank's meeting today.
"This puts an upward pressure on wages growth ahead of the expected peak in Australian economic growth. Indeed, with Australian economic growth forecast to accelerate strongly over 2011-12, we would expect the labour market to tighten further and for wage pressures to intensify," added Hogan.
Interest rates for inflation
To keep inflation rates within the the RBA's 2 percent to 3 percent target band, Hogan said "the RBA will raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent this afternoon in a pre-emptive strike against these medium-term inflation risks."
The ANZ Bank also predicted that by November another increase of 25 bps and translating to a cash rate of 5 percent.