Australia's Inflation Hits 5-Month High, Reserve Bank Unlikely To Lower Rates
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may not be able to reduce interest rates any time soon, as the country sees an acceleration in inflation, reaching a five-month high in April.
The monthly consumer price index (CPI) indicator showed an increase of 0.1 percentage points in April to 3.6%, which is above the market forecast of 3.4%, Reuters reported. The measure of core inflation, called the trimmed mean, also rose in April to 4.1% from 4.0%.
The rise in price in five months is being attributed partly to the increased cost of petrol, holiday travel and health.
"Today's data will be ringing alarm bells down at the RBA," ABC News quoted chief economist Stephen Walters of Business Council of Australia chief economist Stephen Walters. "This is a terrible start to inflation for the June quarter. Inflation is accelerating on all main measures, not receding as had been hoped, thanks mainly to sticky services prices. Further interest rate hikes are unlikely but, after today's upside inflation surprise, no longer can be ruled out."
The monthly CPI indicator may not be comprehensive as quarterly inflation data given by Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), as it updates the price index between 62% and 73% of the items measured. This data, however, gives clarity on the price index each month.
Chief economic adviser at Judo Bank, Warren Hogan, said the April inflation data was not good news as it may put pressure on RBA to hike interest rate in June.
"It does not appear that the RBA can be confident that they will restore price stability with a 4.35% cash rate," Hogan posted on social media. "Much better to have a further small increase in rates in 2024 than risk allowing inflation to become entrenched in our economy."
RBA has maintained that its target is to bring down inflation rate within 2-3% range by late 2025, The Guardian reported.
According to Michelle Marquardt, head of prices statistics for ABS, though April has seen a slight rise in annual inflation for the second consecutive month, inflation has been stable for the past five months.
The key contributors to the annual rise were housing (4.9%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.8%), alcohol and tobacco (6.5%), and transport (4.2%).
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