Bonds decline on opening as market awaits RBA rate move
Investors are on a waiting mode, at least until after the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) anticipated policy rates announcement today, as the Australian bond market opened on Tuesday a bit jittery and somewhat weak on economists' projections that a lift is in the offing.
As 0830 AEDT on the Sydney Future Exchange, the December 10-year bond futures contract plunged from 94.975 (5.025 percent) to 94.923 (5.080 percent) while the December three-year bond futures contract declined from 95.120 (4.880 percent) to 95.080 (4.920 percent).
ICAP economist Adam Carr said that the bond market was generally serene overnight as investors are monitoring the developments that would preceded and follow the RBA decision on Tuesday.
Mr Carr said that the market has been prepped by many economists and analysts presumptions that the central bank would implement a 25 basis points rate movement to 4.75 percent, which explained why "bonds are a tick or two weaker."
He said that with the great majority of market players almost assured of a rate hike, the best bet for now is 'to be short', meaning investors should be prudent enough "to take an investment position that benefits from falls in the price of a security."
However, Mr Carr noted that even in the event of cash rate hike decision by the RBA, it would be unlikely that the safe-haven asset would be hit by unprecedented sell offs since interest rates surges, according to him, were corrosive to the value of fixed income assets such as bonds.
Following the expected increase in cash rate, Mr Carr said that the RBA may opt to pause on further policy movements for the rest of the calendar year as commercial banks expected implementation of higher rate should negate the need of any central bank intervention.
He said that the ball would be passed on to commercial banks after today's announcement and "the implication is the RBA will have to do less," while the market's attention would be swinging to the next move to be instituted by banks.