Business confidence experiences surged since Turnbull became prime minister: NAB

The National Australia Bank Monthly Business Survey released on Tuesday shows business confidence has experienced a strong boost since Malcolm Turnbull replaced Tony Abbot as the prime minister of Australia. The current political scenario is considered favourable by businesses and companies, according to the survey held in the last week of September that included 400 companies.

The business confidence index of NAB has appreciated from 1 point in August, which has been the lowest point since mid-2013, to 5 points in September. The figures show sweeping confidence in Turnbull and a strong sense of relief at the stabilisation of the political uncertainty that had been hovering over the business climate for quite long.

However, the level of business confidence is not the same across all industries. Sectors like mining, construction and finance have fallen. Lower expectations in the construction and finance sectors are presumably due to apprehensions that the housing industry is faltering. The confidence levels varied from one industry to another. While confidence index for the utilities and transport industry surged by 14 points, personal services confidence index experienced a boost by 12 points. But lower commodity prices and weakening demand from China led the points to fall sharply for the mining industry.

"Business confidence recorded a partial recovery in September, increasing to 5 index points from 1," NAB economists, led by Alan Oster, wrote in the report. "It is not clear to what extent this reflects the change in leadership of the Liberal Party, as solid business conditions and some dissipation of financial market jitters may have also contributed to the result," they said.

According to the report the business conditions index also held steady with a strong +9 index points in the month of September. There are also clear signs of improvement when it comes to employment. Although trading and profitability index has slowed down, it has however managed to remain at an elevated level.

“Overall, the business survey suggest a good degree of resilience in what appears to be a building non-mining sector recovery,” a statement in the report said. This indication is more apparent in industries which are more sensitive to the currency changes in the near term.

The report also forecasted that the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to hold the rates at 2 percent without any further monetary easing.

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