China's GDP Seen Skidding Below 9% in Q4 2011
Could it really be a 'Happy New Year' for China as it welcomes the new lunar year? On Tuesday, the world awaits the official results of China 's fourth quarter gross domestic product (GDP) even as economic experts and analysts already foresee a growth decline not below 9 percent.
Surveys conducted by Bloomberg News and Reuters echoed similar results pointing to China's fourth quarter GDP growth at 8.7 percent for 2011. On the other hand, China's official news agency, Xinhua, quoting two separate Chinese economists, reported the Asian country's economy will slow between 8.6 percent to 8.5 percent, and further decelerate to 7.7 percent in the first quarter of 2012, triggered by declining exports to its major trading partner, the Eurozone, as well as the decline of fixed-asset investments due to the subdued property sector growth.
Whatever the official result, the decline may prompt Chinese authorities to further relax monetary and fiscal policies in order to keep the economy stimulated and possibly see a favorable rise in the second quarter of 2012, Xinhua said.
Chinese economists predict the world's second largest economy will post a 9.2 percent annual economic growth for 2011, similar to the 2009 growth when the country started to feel the pangs of the global financial crisis.
Although the expected data may still augur as good news for China's economy, the same may not be said for Australia and New Zealand.
This early, Australia's dollar already weakened 0.4 per cent to $1.0286 as of 4:26 p.m. in Sydney and fell 0.5 per cent to 79.02 yen. It reached a record high of 81.55 euro cents before closing at 81.35. New Zealand's dollar fell 0.2 per cent to 79.34 U.S. cents and was 0.4 percent lower at 60.95 yen.
"A weaker-than-expected number would likely see a bit of pressure on the Aussie dollar," foreign exchange dealer Jeremy Jukes said in Bloomberg News. "A drop in GDP is probably not going to do the Aussie too many favors as China is Australia's largest trading partner."