China’s Manufacturing to Post Sharpest Fall Since 2009
A preliminary survey by HSBC into China's manufacturing activity indicated the sector posted a fall in output in November that it could be its sharpest since March 2009.
The HSBC purchasing managers' index slid to 48 on a 100-point scale in November, well below analysts' forecasts, compared with 51 in October, signaling the sector is further contracting, an indicator that the world's second-largest economy is no superpower and that its economy is also susceptible to slowing down.
A reading above 50 indicates the sector is expanding while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
"Worse is yet to come," Conita Hung, head of equity research of Delta Asia Financial Group, said in The Sydney Morning Herald. "Companies involved in shipping, exports and even banking and finance will be affected."
Although data suggested China's industrial production will moderate to annualized growth rates of 11 per cent to 12 per cent in the coming months amid cooling domestic and external demand, little data was available to imply China is on a major contraction.
"As inflation is likely to decelerate at a faster-than-expected pace, it will leave more room for Beijing to step up selective easing measures, which should gradually filter through to keep China on track for a soft landing," HSBC economist Hongbin Qu said.
Beijing, which has averaged growth of more than 10 per cent for a decade, is now bracing for a slowdown in the economy,
The World Bank has predicted China's gross domestic product would fall to 9.0 per cent in 2011 and then further to 8.4 per cent in 2012. Even the Bank of America Corp. told Bloomberg it has cut its forecast for gains in China's consumer prices next year to 3.5 per cent from 4.5 per cent.
The HSBC flash PMI is the earliest indicator of China's industrial activity. The final fixed figure will be released on Dec. 1.