CLSA hits at CBA
Equity broker and financial services group CLSA accused the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) of keeping details of a housing bubble away from the public eye.
According to CLSA's Australian bank analyst Brian Johnson in his report titled Housing Bubble: Fact or Fiction?, house prices in Australia dropped 12 percent after the financial crisis. The bank analyst claimed the prices were highly probable to fall down further until extreme government intervention takes hold of the deposit and wholesale funding guarantees.
Johnson's report was a point-by-point rebuttal of a 17-page CBA presentation on the residential housing market submitted to the Australian Securities Exchange on Thursday. The CBA report downplayed fears of a housing bubble by stating that the concerns were superficial and based on an incomplete analysis of the Australian market.
In the CLSA report, Johnson said, “Hmm. CBA's analysis of the underlying valuations on home loans made (in the) Storm Financial collapse appears a tad superficial in retrospect!” The former JPMorgan analyst also hit at the CBA's claim that the ratio of house prices to income in Australia is not that different to most other comparable countries.
Johnson argued that “Bank loan losses are not generated by the average quality of the loan portfolio, but extremes within the portfolio. The first homebuyer segment looks vulnerable, particularly given that this is likely where the hidden debt burden posed by a negative credit reporting/zero balance transfer credit card product resides.”
Another CBA argument that received a lot of comments is placing population growth and excess demand, relative to supply, as a key driver of house price growth. Johnson insisted, “despite the housing shortage, the actual number of persons per household has been declining for many years.”