Contrasting economic figures give rise to a moderating GDP
Mixed economic indicators in the September quarter appear to deliver contrasting impacts on the upcoming gross domestic product (GDP) report this mid-week as rising government expenditures are expected to add up on the GDP figures while retreating export volumes are anticipated to detract some percentage points from the national account.
According to the latest data furnished by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), public spending inched up by a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent over the three months leading to September while the country's export sector suffered a wider deficit of $7.8 billion in the same period.
Export volumes considerably shrunk in the quarter coming from the much better performance of the sector in the June quarter, where it posted a deficit of only $5.4 billion, which economists said could effectively pull down economic growth gains in the past two quarters.
The ABS said that more capital formation and consumption from public sector were registered in the September quarter than in the previous period and the jump would contribute up to 0.2 percentage point to the GDP growth numbers.
The rise, according to ABS, accounts for some 0.5 percent increase in final consumption expenditure while government capital formation climbed up by 1.6 percent and public corporations' capital formation shot up by 2.7 percent in the same quarter.
Overall capital formation in the quarter registered improvements by up to 1.9 percent and ABS has indicated that the government spending estimates should reflect noticeable impact in the national accounts set to be released by the federal government on Wednesday.
Yet the positive effects of active government expenditures in the quarter could be easily offset by the faltering September data in the export industry, which failed to meet the forecast of $6.7 billion deficit projected by most economists.
The sector's fresh numbers paled in comparison to the June results, which could lead to a detraction of at least 0.4 percentage points from GDP growth data but much less from the projected 0.8 percentage points set by economists.
As a form of consolation, analysts said that the relatively better subtraction from GDP would at least eclipse the dismal numbers turned in by weak construction, engineering spending, corporate revenues and dwindling company warehouse and shelve stocks during the past week.