Daily Dollar Forecast 11/18/2011
Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar traded lower for the majority of yesterday reaching its lowest level in more than a month versus its US Counterpart. As the Aussie slide for its fourth straight day, global risk sentiment took a dive overnight with the Nations Currency drifting below the parity level to reach an eventual bottom of 0.9973.
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Driving Losses overnight it was again concerns that the global economy will continue to slow as European Leaders struggle to stem the regions debt crisis. With Riskier Assets getting hammered, commodities and global stocks also recording major losses, this morning sees the Australian Dollar open a full Cent lower currently buying 99.85 US Cents.
We expect a range today of 0.9910 – 1.0080
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar extended its decline overnight as significant question marks continue to linger over Europe’s ability to meet its ballooning debt obligations. Triggering the sell-off overnight was as a Spanish Bond Auction which fell well below expectation as the average yield for a new 10-year bond climbed to almost 7 percent. The downbeat sentiment from overnight saw the kiwi trade from an earlier high of 0.7684 against its US Counterpart to an eventual low of 0.7565. Meanwhile this morning the Kiwi opens around one US Cent lower currently trading at a rate of 0.7572 and despite the Kiwi receiving some decent signs of support from local indicators its next move is again likely to be triggered by news flows out of Europe
We expect a range today of 0.7490 - 0.7640
Great British Pound: UK Stocks slid yesterday for a fourth consecutive day as concern over Spanish borrowing costs drove markets lower. Despite a disappointing Spanish Bond Auction driving sentiment lower, in local data released yesterday better than expected Retail Sales growth of 0.6 percent for the month of October provided enough support for the Sterling to advance against its US Counterpart as it reached an eventual high of 1.5812. Whilst the domestic economy continues to be dragged down by the woes of its European counterparts the Sterling has remained resilient, maintaining its medium range just shy of the 1.60 level. Meanwhile this morning the Sterling opens significantly stronger against weaker Australian Dollar at a rate of 1.5783
We expect a range today of 1.5690 – 1.5890
Majors: Global Stocks, Commodities and a handful of Major currencies lost significant ground overnight as concerns grow that Europe’s debt crisis is again set to worsen. The major talking point overnight came from Spain where new 10-year average bond-yields surged to almost 7 percent, the highest level since September 2004. The S&P 500 lost a significant 2.1% following the shock increase in Spain’s borrowing costs as the EURO also lost ground against its US Counterpart declining to an eventual low of 1.3420, recovering only slightly to open this morning at rate of 1.3468. Despite the negative news flows out of Europe again dampening global risk sentiment, in further signs that the US economy is slowly starting to move in the right direction, US Data surprised on the upside with unemployment benefits dropping to their lowest level in seven months with housing starts and building approvals also beating median forecasts. Looking ahead today any better-than-expected data of the US is again likely to be offset by lingering concern over Europe’s borrowing costs as the US Dollar opens steady against the Japanese Yen at a rate of 76.954
Data releases
AUD: No Data Today
NZD: No Data Today
JPY: No Data Today
GBP: No Data Today
EUR: German PPI
USD: FOMC Member Dudley Speak, Building Permits, Unemployment Claims, Housing Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Mortgage Delinquencies, CB Leading Index