Daily forex forecast - 01/02/2011
Australian Dollar: After developing events in Egypt over the weekend, the Aussie opened on the back foot Monday morning and despite a brief fall towards key levels near 0.9850 the little battler was not to be deterred by offshore events. A minor drop in Private Sector Credit had little or no impact on price and the Australian Dollar continued to push higher until it was eventually capped at 0.9990.
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Slightly lower this morning we open at 0.9960 with the RBA to take centre stage later today. Widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at 4.75%, any change would come as a massive shock to the markets and investors will be more closely watching the accompanying rate statement. Not to be overlooked either is Chinese Manufacturing PMI due out midday today, which helps to indicate the economic health of one of the world's major emerging economies.
We expect a range today of 0.9900 - 1.0020
New Zealand Dollar: Government reports showed home-building approvals dropped in December and the New Zealand dollar dropped against 13 of its 16 most-traded counterparts following the news. Also adding to the down-side pressure was a drop in the nation's Trade Balance to -250M, against an expected -15M. As the Greenback has had troubles of its own the effect was muted on this currency pair with a short-lived drop to 0.7685. The NZ Treasury however stated they see no recession in Q4 and are optimistic for 2011, this helping the Kiwi rally back to highs of 0.7740 before falling back to 0.7710. Opening lower today against the Aussie, the antipodean pair currently trade around 0.7740.
We expect a range today of 0.7680 - 0.7760
Great British Pound: The Great British Pound has had an impressive start to the week helped by inflation concerns for the country as Martin Weale continues to support Andrew Sentence in urging a boost in borrowing costs. Recently he has written an article in the Guardian newspaper stating there is a "powerful case" for a "modest rise" in the cash rate.
Sterling surges almost 1.2% against the Greenback, breaking through the $1.60 barrier for the first time since last Tuesday. Running into resistance at 1.6050, we still trade above the barrier at 1.6015. Interest rate speculation has also helped the Pound rally against the Aussie and the Kiwi opening today at 1.6070 and 2.0750 respectively.
We expect a range today of 0.5980 - 1.6100
Majors: The Euro strengthened overnight as estimates for consumer inflation were raised to 2.4% from 2.2% y/y in December, overshadowing an unexpected drop in German retail sales. Gaining 0.6 percent against the Japanese Yen, the common currency also managed to erase Friday's Egypt and risk-related losses, reaching highs of 1.3740. Impressive local data from both Japan and the US means the safe-haven pair has traded sideways since this weeks open; a 7.5% increase in Japanese housing starts saw the 82.00 barrier broken to reach 81.90 with a return to 82.20 as US consumer spending shows itself to be the best in 3 years alongside an increase in Chicago's PMI. Anxious investors will not easily ignore the turmoil in Egypt though and the Greenback enters today's Asian trade under a bit of pressure against its major trading partners.
Data releases
AUD: Cash Rate; RBA Rate Statement; Commodity Prices y/y
NZD: Labor Cost Index q/q
JPY: Average Cash Earnings y/y
GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m; Net Lending to Individuals m/m
EUR: German Unemployment Change; Unemployment Rate; Final Manufacturing PMI
USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI; Construction Spending m/m