Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar had a mixed day's trade onshore during Asia yesterday with a better than anticipated 0.4% increase in retail sales initially pushing the Aussie to very briefly test 1.0200. Markets then proceeded to gravitate down from this high and further ground was lost in the afternoon off the back of the RBA's interest rate statement.

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Leaving interest rates on hold at 4.75% surprised no-one however investors reacted negatively to the accompanying statement where Governor Glenn Stevens said he expected inflation to remain in its target range of 2-3% for the next year. His position clearly lowers interest rate expectations over the medium-term and our local currency subsequently lost 35 points to enter offshore trade at 1.0150. Positive Manufacturing data from the US and ongoing political tensions in the Middle East and North Africa and continued to put pressure on the currency pair overnight and we open this morning at 1.0135 ahead of GDP figures due for release this morning.

We expect a range today of 1.0080 - 1.0170

New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar spent its local trading hours yesterday maintain levels above 75 cents however the start of the European session saw a quick fall to test support near 0.7490. With a few attempts to break back through, this support level held out for the majority of offshore trade before risk aversion and US Dollar strength finally succeeded in pushing the Kiwi down to its current level at 0.7480. The struggling currency is also lower against its antipodean counterpart and after testing lows near 0.7370 we open the onshore session today at 0.7380.

We expect a range today of 0.7430 - 0.7510

Great British Pound: An unexpected 0.3% rise in UK House prices has resulted in the Great British Pound rallying to a 13mth high against the US Dollar, breaking through the $1.63 barrier for the first time since January 2010 and reaching highs above 1.6320. Manufacturing also maintained its record pace of growth in February and with manufacturing sentiment also at a record high speculation of an impending interest rate rise has once again been boosted. Corrective trade pulled Cable back below 1.63 however a second attempt at these highs was made during the North American session, once again with the rally being capped near 1.6320. A flight to safe-haven assets in the latter half of North America sees the Pound open this morning back below at 1.626, but holding gains against the Aussie, at 1.6040 and the Kiwi at 2.1740.

We expect a range today of 1.5970 - 1.6100

Majors: An increase in the Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing Index in February, to 61.4 from a previous 60.8, has seen the US Dollar rally overnight and pare some of its recent losses. Gaining almost 30 points against the Euro and 15 points against the Japanese Yen upon the release the rally continued for the remainder of the day's session against most of its major trading partners. A decrease in equity prices and renewed fears for political unrest with Iran, Oman, Bahrain and possibly Saudi Arabia now entering the picture has seen the Euro drop below 1.3770 against the Greenback, with the fellow safe-haven Yen recovering losses made earlier in the day and encountering resistance at 81.80. We open today near these levels with key US employment figures and the Fed's Beige Book due for release tonight.

Data releases

AUD: GDP q/q; HIA New Home Sales m/m

NZD: No data due for release

JPY: Monetary Base y/y

GBP: Construction PMI

EUR: PPI m/m

USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change; Beige Book; Crude Oil Inventories

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