Daily Forex Forecast 04/04/2011
Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar hit fresh 29-year highs on Friday night after US employers added more jobs than forecast last month fuelling another session of risk appetite. Investors showed caution ahead of the data which saw the Aussie hit a 24-hour low of 1.0313 early in New York trade.
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However, once it was revealed the employment rate fell to 8.8 per cent, the Aussie rallied all the way to a post-float high of 1.0389. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia meet tomorrow to discuss monetary policy and with a higher domestic currency taking some of the heat off inflationary pressures, the central bank is widely tipped to leave rates on hold at 4.75 per cent. The unit opens the new week at 1.0380.
We expect a range today of 1.0350 - 1.0440
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar hit fresh 6-week highs against the greenback on Friday at 0.7682 and opens the new week at 0.7670 after US employers added me jobs than forecast last month fuelling another round of risk appetite. The unemployment rate in the United States now stands at 8.8 per cent after non-farm payrolls rose by 216,000 in March. From an intraday low of 0.7580, it was a solid session for the kiwi given domestic data released last week showed that business confidence was at a post-GFC nadir. The kiwi also out-performed its trans-Tasman rival overnight and opens today at 0.7386.
We expect a range today of 0.7650 - 0.7700
Great British Pound: Pound Sterling (1.6100) opens higher today against the greenback after stronger-than-expected US jobs data (see ''majors below) fuelled risk appetite. However, the pound is at the lower end of its recent two-month range (1.5950 - 1.6400) as Bank of England policy makers remain divided over the near-term direction of interest rates and whether the economy is strong enough to cope with a rise in borrowing costs in order to curtail inflation. The market is tipping that rates will remain on hold at 0.5 per cent when the UK central bank meets this Thursday. Meanwhile, the pound opens weaker against both the Australian Dollar (1.5500) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.0950).
We expect a range today of 1.5420 - 1.5520
Majors: The Japanese Yen is weaker across the board as demand for riskier assets increased again on Friday night after stronger-than-expected jobs data in the United States. Non-farm payrolls in March rose by 216,000 and the unemployment rate fell to a two-year low of 8.8 per cent. The Yen hit a five-month low (84.72) against the greenback and a ten-month low against the Euro (119.54) on Friday - two weeks after G7 nations co-ordinated to weaken the currency from all time highs. Meanwhile, the Euro (1.4225) hit fresh 4-month highs against the greenback on Friday at 1.4245 as many market participants are predicting an interest rate rise by the European Central Bank when it meets this Thursday. The benchmark interest rate in the Euro zone currently stands at 1 per cent.
Data releases
AUD: ANZ Job Advertisements, March
NZD: No data today
JPY: No data today
GBP: PMI Construction, March
EUR: Euro Zone Producer Price Index, Feb
USD: No data today
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