Australian Dollar: With little in terms of significant local events yesterday the Australian dollar drifted slightly lower overnight to open this morning at a rate of 1.0497. As global equities softened, gold, silver and crude oil also pulled back some of their recent gains. The Aussie Dollar looks ahead with the NAB Business Confidence survey due for release today with any positive news potentially creating even further upside and should see the local unit again circling its recent all time high around the 1.0580 Mark. While the major theme still involves a weak USD and the continued presence of a risk-on environment, it's yet to be seen whether the Aussie Dollar can kick on further and break its tight trading range witnessed over the course of the previous 48 hours.

We expect a range today of 1.0460-1.0540

New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar held tightly onto 0.7830 against the US Dollar as it attempted to break the 0.7850 barrier throughout Asian trade and well into the European session. The Kiwi fell below 0.7800 in the aftermath of the IMF's World Economic Outlook release which downgraded growth expectations for the US and Japan. The impact of higher commodity prices for these two economies was of particular concern given the recent disasters in Japan and high public debt levels in developed countries. This morning the New Zealand Dollar opens buying 0.7805 US Dollars.

We expect a range today of 0.7760-0.7830

Great British Pound: The Pound struggled to overcome 1.6370 versus the US Dollar offshore, remaining range bound following cautious comments from the Independent Commission on banking recommending British bank should boost capital and separate consumer banking to strengthen the retail banking operation while protecting depositors. Moving into New York trade the IMF announced it has lowered its forecast for US growth, predicting higher oil prices and the slow pace of job gains will restrain the US recovery. The Pound surged above 1.6400 US in the aftermath before consolidating back down around 1.6350. Meanwhile the Pound opens today buying 1.5572 Australian Dollars and 2.0931 Kiwi.

We expect a range today of 1.5530 - 1.5650

Majors: The Greenback rose against the Yen early in Asia after US policymakers agreed a $38 billion spending cuts plan before the midnight deadline avoiding a government shutdown, much to the relief of investors. Moving offshore, the US softened touching 84.50 Yen after the IMF downgraded its forecast for US economic growth from 3% to 2.8%this year. French Industrial and Manufacturing production both missed their estimates printing slightly lower than forecast. For the month of February, industrial production increased 0.4% while manufacturing only rose 0.7%. Despite the economic news investors continued to push the Euro stalling at 1.4470 against the US Dollar early offshore. Concerns an increase in European interest rates would make it harder for nations, such as Portugal who will start negotiations with the EU and IMF this week, to contain debt weighed the Euro down late in the European session to an overnight low of 1.44200 US.

Data releases

AUD: NAB Business Confidence (MAR)

NZD: QV House Prices- annualised (MAR)

JPY: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Machine Tool Orders

GBP: CPI, Trade Balance

EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment

USD: Trade Balance

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