Daily Forex Forecast 04/20/2011
Australian Dollar: The Aussie has run into some resistance around the US105 cent area and fell from this level during yesterday's domestic session. Profit-takers moved in early in the Asian session taking the unit down to 1.0480 as local equities followed global share markets lower.
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There were no surprises contained in the April 5 meeting minutes released by the Reserve Bank of Australia yesterday. The minutes showed that the cash rate is unlikely to rise anytime soon pushing the Aussie beneath 1.0460 where it spent most of the afternoon. During the offshore session, the currency rallied to a high of 1.0532 where, once again, it has run into the afore-mentioned resistance to open in Sydney at 1.0520.
We expect a range today of 1.0460 - 1.0540
New Zealand Dollar: Investors continued to shun risk during Tuesday's domestic session pushing the New Zealand Dollar down to an intraday low of 0.7849 against its US counterpart.
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The kiwi has fallen from 3-year highs above US80 in recent days cents after consumer prices rose less-than-anticipated in the March quarter which has investors speculating the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will leave rates on hold over the coming months. Local shares followed global equity markets lower, further dampening sentiment for the currency. During the offshore session, the unit moved back towards US79 cents and opens today at 0.7880. Meanwhile, the kiwi opens little-changed against the Australian Dollar at 0.7485.
We expect a range today of 0.7845 - 0.7910
Great British Pound: Pound Sterling opens marginally higher against the greenback (1.6300) but weaker against the Euro (0.8780) amid continued speculation rates will rise at a faster pace in the Euro zone than in the United Kingdom.
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The pound hit an overnight high of 1.6336 ahead of the release tomorrow of the UK central banks' minutes from the last meeting held on April 7. Investors have priced out a near-term rate hike and this is preventing the currency from advancing against its major counterparts. The pound did however manage to rally overnight against both the Australian Dollar (1.5490) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.0680).
We expect a range today of 1.5450 - 1.5520
Majors: Despite sovereign debt concerns continuing to weigh on the minds of investors, the Euro (1.4330) rallied to an overnight high of 1.4352 on interest rate speculation. The prospect of less accommodative monetary policy settings by the European Central Bank (ECB) ahead of their counterparts in the UK and the United States is providing support to the 17-nation currency. The ECB is known to be concerned about inflationary expectations and raised rates by 25 basis points on April 7. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (0.9559) also rallied against the greenback after annual inflation came in at 3.3 per cent in March, exceeding market expectations.
Data releases
AUD: Producer Price Index, Q1
NZD: Credit Card spending, March
JPY: No data today
GBP: Bank of England minutes
EUR: German producer prices, March
USD: Existing home sales, March
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