Daily Forex Forecast 05/02/2011
Australian Dollar: Recent upward momentum and weakness in the Greenback propelled the Aussie Dollar to fresh highs yet again during yesterday's Asian session, topping out at 1.0940 before heading into offshore trade holding above the 1.09 handle.
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The European and North American session saw some minor profit-taking causing the Australian Dollar to fall back to 1.0870 before new record high gold prices and Greenback weakness helped pare intraday losses. We open this morning trading at 1.0920 with Private Sector Credit scheduled for release early this afternoon.
We expect a range today of 1.0860 - 1.0950
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar endured a tumultuous onshore session yesterday, oscillating between highs of 0.8080 and lows near 0.8000. Starting the day at highs, the Kiwi rapidly fell to test support near 80 cents as the RBNZ kept rates on hold and said that rates will stay unchanged for some time as the country outlook remains very uncertain.
Inherent weakness of the Greenback and a similarly cautious monetary policy stance from the US Federal Reserve helped the Kiwi reclaim some ground and it fought back to its opening highs of 0.8080.
Unable to hold onto these gains, a drift lower saw the NZD head into offshore trade closer to 0.8040/50 and by the close of North America back down at 0.8020. The Australian Dollar used this opportunity to gain back some ground and the pair currently trade at 0.7350.
We expect a range today of 0.7980 - 0.8070
Great British Pound: The Great British Pound continued to benefit from a weaker US Dollar and broke through the 1.6700 handle for the first time since November 2009 by the second half of Asian trade. Reaching a fresh high of 1.6746 Cable soon lost momentum after a risk adverse trading environment was triggered by the release of worse than expected US data, both advanced GDP and weekly unemployment claims disappointed investors coming in far worse than expected.
Falling dramatically, support was found at 1.6630 and the Asian session opened at this support level. Sterling also gave back ground against the Australian and New Zealand Dollars opening today at 1.5220 and 2.0720 respectively.
We expect a range today of 1.5120 - 1.5280
Majors: It appears Bernanke gave the green light for a US Dollar sell-off during Wednesday's press conference and the big Dollar continued to lose ground during the Asian session yesterday. The Euro started the day trading at 1.4780 and by the afternoon had reached highs of 1.4870. In a data heavy local session, the Japanese Yen also managed to gain some ground against the Greenback despite the Bank of Japan's Outlook Report forecasting the Japanese Economy to remain under considerable downward pressure for the time being. On a positive note for the Japanese economy, the unemployment rate decreased to 4.6% and core CPI was reported to be slightly better than expected. Overnight the USD/JPY continued to lose ground as US GDP and Unemployment figures disappointed the markets, coming in worse than expected. An increase in Pending home sales however provided a slight boost and we open today at 81.55 and the Euro buying $1.4825.
Data releases
AUD: Private Sector Credit m/m
NZD: Trade Balance
JPY: No data due for release
GBP: Nationwide HPI m/m
EUR: M3 Money Supply y/y; CPI Flash Estimate y/y; Unemployment Rate
USD: Employment Cost Index q/q; Personal Spending m/m; Chicago PMI; Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
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