Daily Forex Forecast 07/03/2011
Australian Dollar: After much caution on Friday ahead of key US jobs data, the Australian Dollar opens the new week little-changed at 1.0126. The unit did not come to life until the US Labour Department announced that employers added 192,000 workers in February causing a brief spike in the greenback.
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The Aussie dropped to a 24-hour low of 1.0074 but the move was short-lived. Whilst better than expected, the data suggested that interest rates in the United States are going to remain on hold for some little time yet. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar hit fresh 10-year highs against the New Zealand Dollar and opens today at 1.3750 as interest rates are tipped to fall across the Tasman from 3 per cent to 2.5 per cent as early as this week.
We expect a range today of 1.0050 - 1.0145
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens lower today against the greenback at 0.7350. The kiwi hit a fresh five-month low on Friday night of 0.7337 as speculation mounts the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may push the official cash rate (OCR) back down to a record low later this week as the Christchurch earthquake slashes economic growth in 2011. This Thursday (March 10), RBNZ Governor Mr Alan Bollard may lower the OCR by as much as 50 basis points to 2.5 per cent when he releases his monthly monetary policy statement. Meanwhile, the kiwi hit fresh 10-year lows against the Australian Dollar on Friday and opens today at 0.7260.
We expect a range today of 0.7310 - 0.7380
Great British Pound: Pound Sterling opens little-changed against the greenback today at 1.6260. During Friday''s session, the currency peaked at 1.6304 and there was little to encourage further buying after the Halifax House Price Index fell 0.9 per cent in February. Weak economic data is hampering the pound at the moment and it may not get much assistance this week when The Bank of England is tipped to leave interest rates on hold at 0.50 per cent on Thursday. Meanwhile, the pound opens higher against both the Australian Dollar (1.6060) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.2100).
We expect a range today of 1.6020 - 1.6125
Majors: The Euro touched a fresh four-month high above 1.4000 during trade on Friday after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said the central bank may need to raise rates as early as next month. The 17-nation currency rallied from a low of 1.3939 after Mr Trichet told reporters in Frankfurt an "increase of interest rates in the next meeting is possible" as inflationary pressures mount. The benchmark rate currently stands at 1.00 per cent after rates were left on hold last week for a 23rd consecutive month. Labour force data announced on Friday in the United States showed that employers added 192,000 workers in February causing a brief spike in the greenback. The unemployment rate improved to 8.9 per cent, but this was not enough to convince traders the US Federal Reserve can do anything but leave rates at their current accommodative level. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (0.9255) rallied against several major currencies as crude oil hit fresh 29-month highs (US$104.32) amid continuing turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East.
Data releases
AUD: ANZ Job Advertisements, Feb
NZD: Building permits, Jan
JPY: Leading Index, Jan
GBP: No data today
EUR: Euro Zone Investor Confidence, Mar
USD: No data today
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