Daily Forex Forecast 08/03/2011
Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar was supported above US101 cents during Monday's Asian session after the ANZ series of job advertisements rose for the tenth consecutive month.
[Get this delivered to your inbox for FREE. Subscribe to our daily Markets Newsletter.]
A rise of 1.2 per cent was recorded in February as demand for labour increased as a result of the clean-up effort required after Queensland's recent flood crisis. On Thursday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release overall jobs data where the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 5 per cent. The Aussie dollar opens little-changed today at 1.0113 after moving as low as 1.0090 during the offshore session.
We expect a range today of 1.0080 - 1.0140
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens largely unchanged against the greenback today at 0.7360. The unit spent most of the Asian session beneath US74 cents after Statistics New Zealand announced yesterday that building consents hit a nine-month low, falling 11 per cent in January as construction of new homes slumped. The kiwi has been sold heavily lately on a combination of weak economic data and the outlook for domestic interest rates. This Thursday (March 10), RBNZ Governor Mr Alan Bollard may lower the official cash rate by as much as 50 basis points to 2.5 per cent when he releases his monthly monetary policy statement. Against the Australian Dollar, the kiwi opens at 0.7281.
We expect a range today of 0.7330 - 0.7400
Great British Pound: Pound Sterling weakened overnight against the greenback (1.6180) ahead of Thursday's Bank of England policy meeting where rates are tipped to remain on hold at 0.5 per cent. Investors are also speculating that rates in the Euro zone are likely to be raised by the European Central Bank ahead of any move in the UK, causing the pound to fall for a fourth consecutive session against the Euro (0.8623). Meanwhile, the pound opens lower against both the Australian Dollar (1.6009) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.1989).
We expect a range today of 1.5980 - 1.6060
Majors: The Euro briefly hit fresh 4-month highs at 1.4035 against the greenback overnight but fell back sharply towards Tuesday's opening level of 1.3960. Credit-default swaps on Greek and Portuguese bonds rose overnight as the market begins to focus on the upcoming European Union Economic Summit in Brussels at the end of this week. The 17-nation currency has rallied 9 per cent this calendar year from a low of 1.2867 on January 10 on speculation the European Central Bank will raise rates ahead of its counterparts in England and the United States. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen has strengthened (82.20) as stocks fell and commodities weakened boosting safe-haven demand.
Data releases
AUD: NAB Business Confidence, Feb
NZD: Manufacturing activity, Q4
JPY: Trade Balance, Jan
GBP: No data today
EUR: German factory orders, Jan
USD: No data today.
[Get this delivered to your inbox for FREE. Subscribe to our daily Markets Newsletter.]