Daily Forex Forecast 08/08/2011
Australian Dollar: After a tumultuous end to last week the Aussie opens on Monday at 1.0400 as investors continue to digest news of the United States downgrade by S & P on Saturday morning local time from AAA to AA+. Concerns over global and local economic growth will continue to be the main drivers of risk assets, equities and the Australian Dollar over the coming days.
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The currency hit an intraday low last Friday evening 1.0370 as the Reserve Bank of Australia released its quarterly statement which highlighted key risks in Europe and the United States could play out in a "disorderly and disruptive manner" leading to a rise in "global risk and uncertainty". High volumes and further volatility are expected on currency markets today.
We expect a range today of 1.0280 – 1.0495
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar opens higher today against the greenback at 0.8400 after another volatile session. The unit hit a low of 0.8280 during Friday''s Asian session however exporter interest provided some much-needed support at this level. The kiwi headed into the offshore session at 0.8370.
There is no major economic data due out in New Zealand until Fridays second quarter retail sales data leaving the kiwi vulnerable to offshore events, of which there are plenty.
Concerns over global economic growth will continue to be the main drivers of risk assets, equities and the New Zealand Dollar over the coming days. The kiwi has outperformed its trans-Tasman rival over the weekend and opens today at 0.8087.
We expect a range today of 0.8300 – 0.8460
Great British Pound: Pound Sterling opens higher against its US counterpart today at 1.6440. Sterling hit a low on Friday of 1.6227 after equities in the UK fell for a sixth straight session denting demand for the local currency. Also weighing on the pound was news that producer price inflation accelerated to an annual pace of 5.9 per cent after a 0.2 per cent jump in July.
The Bank of England has its hands tied at present and is likely to keep interest rates at a record low of 0.5 per cent for some time yet as it grapples with high inflation and low economic growth. Meanwhile, the pound opens higher against both the Australian Dollar (1.55780) and the New Zealand Dollar (1.9560) amid continued volatility.
We expect a range today of 1.5740 - 1.5875
Majors: As traders brace for more volatility, the Euro opens sharply higher at 1.4400 on Monday and was buoyed on Friday by news that Italy intends to fast-track austerity measures. The Euro is at a 24-hour high against the greenback as investors are hopeful the European Central Bank (ECB) will act to support Italian and Spanish bonds which have plummeted in recent days on insolvency concerns in those countries.
The greenback actually climbed against several major currencies on Friday on a better-than-expected US jobs report. 117,000 positions were created last month to bring the unemployment rate down fractionally to 9.1 per cent. Whilst US equities finished in the black after a session marked by volatility and high volumes, news that ratings agency Standard & Poors had downgraded US credit to AA+ did not emerge until 4 hours after the close.
Data releases
AUD: ANZ job ads, July
NZD: REINZ House Sales July
JPY: Trade Balance, June
GBP: No data today
EUR: EZ Sentix Investor confidence, August
USD: No data today