Daily forex forecast - 09/11/2010
Australian Dollar: A brief US Dollar rally saw the Aussie lose ground during onshore trade yesterday with a minor increase in October Job Advertisements failing to provide any support. Entering London hours around 1.0120 the slide continued and session lows of 1.0080 were seen. Despite a noticeable correction in the Greenback the uptrend in the Australian Dollar remains intact, helped out by strong gold prices and the continuing defence of further economic stimulus by members of the US Federal Reserve. Entering Asian trade today we see levels comfortably back above 1.0100 with attempts to break back through 1.0140. With lack of any US data upcoming in the next 24hrs, a positive NAB Business Confidence Index may be the catalyst needed to fuel any potential rally.
We expect a range today of 1.0100 - 1.0180
New Zealand Dollar: After strong bids for the New Zealand dollar of late, a correction looks to be underway as trade against the US Dollar has been strained since yesterday's open. Among the strongest performers in the majors last week, the Kiwi has fallen back to test support at 0.7840 as a result a correction in the US Dollar and comments made by the country's PM. John Key voiced opinion that the currency pair is likely push above 80 cents and this will be detrimental for New Zealand's exporters. Managing to reclaim some of the Asian losses overnight, it pushed very briefly back through 79 cents to open today in a narrow range around 0.7880. Ground has also been lost against the Aussie Dollar as it appears the New Zealand Dollar closed out last week slightly over-bought. Falling from its weekly opening of 0.7820 we currently see the Kiwi trading at 0.7770 against its antipodean counterpart.
We expect a range today of 0.7820 - 0.7900
Great British Pound: Falling along with majority of major currencies against the USD yesterday the Pound Sterling managed to contain its losses and remain above 1.61. Helped out by strong selling of the Euro against the Pound resultant from focus on Ireland's banks, Cable stays solid ahead of today's Manufacturing data and Wednesday's all important Inflation Report. Released quarterly, this report given by the Bank of England provides valuable insight into the country's inflation and economic growth prospects and is a key indicator for future direction of interest rates. Spending offshore trade in a 60-pip trading range we open today at 1.6130 against the Greenback, but lower against the Aussie and Kiwi. A brief risk rally overnight erased minor gains against the commodity currencies and we open today at 1.5920 and 2.0470 respectively.
We expect a range today of 1.5860 - 1.5950
Majors: A quiet day on the US economic data front has resulted in the markets focusing in on the implications of Quantitative Easing- Round 2, and also directing attention to Ireland's banking woes. The Greenback has been the benefactor, with EUR/USD falling from opening levels above 1.4050 to find support at 1.3940. The single currency's decline extended further upon a mixed bag of German data, namely poor Industrial Production figures seeing a brief dip below 1.39. The Japanese Yen fared slightly better and after early morning losses managed to push marginally below 81.00. The Bank of Japan yesterday stressed a moderate recovery for the exporting nation in its Monthly Report and the USD/JPY traded uneventfully throughout the offshore sessions.
Data releases
AUD: NAB Business Confidence
NZD: No data due for release
JPY: Current Account
GBP: Manufacturing Production m/m; Trade Balance
EUR: German Consumer Price Index
USD: Wholesale Inventories m/m
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