Daily Forex Forecast 10/03/2011
Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar traded in a 40 pip range (1.0060 - 1.0100) during the Asian time zone with the market holding steady in buying or selling the local unit. Despite a relatively downbeat reading in the Westpac Consumer Sentiment report (Actual -2.4%; Previous 1.4%), its lowest reading since July 2010, as investors still continue to weigh up the timing of the next move in domestic interest rates. During the offshore session the little battler traded between 1.0080 and 1.0132 as concerns about the affairs in Libya and its impact on oil prices prompted traders to reassess their open positions.
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We expect a range today of 1.0050 to 1.0150
New Zealand Dollar: As expected the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 2.50% this morning and in the accompanying press conference Governor Allan Bollard termed the decision an "insurance policy" to stave off a severe downturn in the local economy due to the recent earthquake in Christchurch. On the news the New Zealand moved down against the US Dollar and remained steady against Australia Dollar. The news came as no surprise to the market as New Zealand try's to comes to terms with one of its worst natural disasters in decades and a potential cost of clean up expected in the region of NZD15 billion.
We expect a range today of 0.7300 to 0.7400
Great British Pound: All eyes this evening will on the Bank of England's interest rate decision with many in the market potentially believing that a round of interest rate hikes will be on the cards in the short term in the UK. Governor Mervyn King and Co are due to make the announcement at 12 PM UK time today. Last night's release of the UK Trade Balance caught many in the market off guard with the release coming in well below expectations at -GBP7.1 billion compared with a previous reading of -GBP9.7 billion, with exports surging to record highs. The Pound continues to hold firm above 1.60 against the US Dollar, moving between 1.6137 and 1.6240 in the offshore session. Against the Australian and New Zealand Dollar the Pound is currently exchanging hands at 1.6030 and 2.1975 respectively.
We expect a range today of 1.5900 to 1.6100
Majors: Another night of safe haven buying saw the US Dollar lose ground yet again to the Swiss Franc (0.9290), EURO (1.3905) and Japanese Yen (82.70) as fighting in Libya escalated yet again and the implications thereof weighing heavily on world oil prices. In news out of Europe, Portugal held its first bond auction in almost 2 months with the uptake being well received; however the yields were up almost 1.9% compared with the previous sale. Stateside there was little in the way of local data but the big news is due out Friday night, with Retail Sales, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations all having the ability to move the US Dollar.
Data releases
AUD: Unemployment Rate
NZD: RBNZ Decision
JPY: Final GDP Price Index; Prelim Machine Tool Orders
GBP: Bank of England Interest rate decision; Manufacturing & Industrial Production
EUR: German Trade Balance; French Industrial Production
USD: Trade Balance; Unemployment Claims
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