Daily forex forecast 11/02/2011
Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar opens weaker against the greenback this morning at 1.0035. Local jobs data yesterday caused some initial volatility between 1.0075 and 1.0130, however the currency settled down after a few minutes and spent much of the Asian session trading beneath US101 cents.
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The unemployment rate held steady at 5 per cent in line with expectations with 24,000 new positions created. Upon further scrutiny of the numbers, the economy cut 8,000 full-time positions during the month of January with part-time jobs increasing by 32,000. During offshore trade, the Aussie gradually moved its way down to an overnight low of 1.0008 as the greenback strengthened across the board.
We expect a range today of 1.0000 - 1.0100
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar traded sideways for the majority of the Asian session moving between 0.7700 and 0.7730 as yesterday's comments from Finance Minster Bill English about the "possibility" of the nation slipping into recession in the second half of last year continued to weigh on the currency.
The Kiwi is up roughly 3.7% against the Greenback since the beginning of the year however there is potential for these advances to be curtailed should further evidence emerge of a downturn in local growth. During the offshore session the Kiwi moved down to a two-and-a-half week low of 0.7624 and opens marginally above that level this morning at 0.7632.
We expect a range today of 0.7610 - 0.7660
Great British Pound: Pound Sterling strengthened against several major currencies overnight on speculation the Bank of England will be forced to raise rates later this year, possibly by the third quarter. Against the greenback overnight the pound traded between 1.6006 and 1.6137.
As expected, the Bank of England kept rates on hold at 0.5 per cent, despite inflation at the elevated level of 3.7 per cent. The pound is being supported at present by the strong likelihood of a rate hike this year. Meanwhile, the pound is sharply higher against both the Australian Dollar (1.6020) and the New Zealand Dollar (2.1100).
We expect a range today of 1.6000 - 1.6080
Majors: The greenback moved higher overnight against the Euro (1.3590) and the Japanese Yen (83.24) after a drop in US jobless claims signalled that unemployment is easing. Applications for jobless benefits for the week ending February 4 decreased by 36,000 to 383,000, compared to economists' forecasts of 410,000.
It might be early days, but as far as currency movements are concerned, investors are buying into the US recovery story. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen hit a one-month low against the US Dollar overnight (83.36) after Moody's Investor Services warned this week that a lack of success on fiscal reform would have a negative effect on Japan's credit rating.
Data releases
AUD: No data today
NZD: REINZ House prices, Jan
JPY: No data today
GBP: Producer Price Index, Jan
EUR: German CPI, Jan
USD: Uni of Michigan confidence, Feb
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