Daily forex forecast - 11/11/2010
Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar started trading yesterday with a very brief dip below parity; however a 1.3% rise in home loans placed in effect a morning rally which was capped at 1.0070. Strengthening of the US Dollar soon prevailed and two more solid dips below parity were witnessed during overnight trade. The Fed's announcement it will be purchasing bonds over the next month has given a boost to the Aussie, taking it back above parity and we open this morning nearing 1.0070 which has proved to be short-term resistance. Today we see the release of the much anticipated Unemployment figures and with several releases due from China as well we are likely to see recent volatility continue during the Asian session today.
We expect a range today of 0.9950 - 1.0150
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand has held a little more strongly against the Greenback over the last 24 hours after losing ground early on following the central bank's Financial Stability Report. The report stated the high value of the Kiwi was not going to help the country's economic recovery and price levels dropped to a 5-day low following the news. Seeing a session low of 0.7740 the New Zealand dollar recovered over a cent during European trade and helped by a new round of economic stimulus from the US we open today trading around 0.7840. With some ground also being made against the Aussie dollar we open today at 0.7800 ahead of the Business NZ Manufacturing Index due out early today.
We expect a range today of 0.7780 - 0.7880
Great British Pound: The Bank of England appears to have turned less dovish as governor Mervyn King announces the central bank expects inflation levels to remain above target for 2010. GBP/USD which has recently fallen back below 1.60, turned bullish and rallied back to reach highs above 1.6130 and settling to open today at 1.6120. The surprisingly bullish tone of the report also caused a jump for Sterling against the Aussie and the Kiwi; we saw GBP/AUD jump 2 cents from a recent low below 1.59 with GBP/NZD gaining 3 cents to 2.0680. We open today at 1.6020 and 2.0560 respectively.
We expect a range today of 1.5860 - 1.6080
Majors: The Greenback has hit one month highs against the Japanese Yen overnight, pushing to levels near 82.80 helped by a better than expected Trade Balance and a 24k drop in unemployment claims for the world's largest economy. An announcement by the US Federal Reserve saw the US Dollar renounce some of its gains as it became known the next round of asset purchasing will begin over the next month and around $105B worth of bonds will be bought. The Euro also remains under pressure as the markets continue to focus on debt issues in the Emerald Isle as well as French and Italian Industrial Production seen to be lagging against expectations. Falling to a low of 1.3670 against the Dollar the single currency has managed to recover slightly and settle around a comfortable trading range around 1.3770/80.
Data releases
AUD: Employment Change; Unemployment Rate
NZD: Business NZ Manufacturing Index
JPY: Core Machinery Orders m/m
GBP: No data due for release
EUR: ECB Monthly Bulletin
USD: No data due for release
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