Daily Forex Forecast 14/03/2011
Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar climbed following reports of increased industrial production and steady inflation for China. However Japan's earthquake triggered a flight from risk with investor selling off the Aussie.
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Moving offshore the Australian Dollar slipped to 0.9970 against the Greenback as investors contemplated the economic impact of the quake. A larger than expected increase in US retail sales helped boost the Aussie to 1.0130 US. This morning the Aussie opens buying 1.0150 US Dollars.
We expect a range today of 1.0000-1.0180
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar suffered as investor risk aversion heightened, nervously selling riskier assets after the quake and tsunami hit Japan. The Kiwi fell 35pts to 0.7325 against the US Dollar early offshore before climbing to a seven day high of 0.7454 following promising developments in Europe and higher US retail sales. The initial reaction wearing off for investors as the market estimated the potential economic cost of the quake on the global economy. Damage from the 1995 Kobe earthquake, measuring 6.9, was approximately 2% of GBP. The New Zealand Dollar opens today buying 0.7417 US ahead of consumer confidence and housing sales reports.
We expect a range today of 0.7360-0.7460
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Great British Pound: In the UK PPI figures printed below estimates with Inputs growing only 1.1% while Output increased 0.5% showing producers are still bearing the brunt, refusing to pass on rising costs to consumers. The FSTE fell to a 3 month low after the biggest earthquake on record in Japan shook the market. UK insurers will have to cover the losses incurred in Japan which could be up to $15 Billon. The Sterling slipped to a 1 month low of 1.5975 US overnight before finding its way back up to 1.6063. Meanwhile the Pound starts the day lower against the Aussie at 1.5868 as it buys 2.1682 New Zealand Dollars ahead of tonight's Nationwide consumer confidence report.
We expect a range today of 1.5775-1.5940
Majors: Investors initially sold off the Japanese in response to the 8.9 earthquake which hit the nation's North East. The US Dollar spiked at 83.30 Yen before drifting 1.4% to 81.84 amid prospects for Japanese investors to repatriate a wave of capital. Thus far, the Bank of Japan has ensured lenders have enough cash to settle transactions while Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told reporters late yesterday he's ready to unleash "massive" liquidity into the banking sector. Approximately 200 billion yen left over from the budget for the fiscal year ending March 31 will be spent in the relief effort by the Japanese government. The Euro fell to 1.3750 versus the Greenback, dropping almost 100pts, on concerns the EZ finance ministers summit would not yield any solutions to the sovereign debt issue threatening the region. Signs Germany would be willing to ease bail out terms and increase the size of the emergency funds saw the Euro rebound up to 1.3880.
Data releases AUD: New Motor Vehicle sales NZD: Westpac Consumer Confidence (1Q), House Sales (Feb) JPY: Consumer Confidence (FEB), Interest Rates, Industrial Production (Mar) GBP: Nationwide Consumer Confidence (Feb) EUR: Industrial Production (Jan) USD: No Data Today More from IBT Markets:
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