Daily forex forecast - 15/11/2010
Australian Dollar: The Aussie fell as much as 1.75% against the Greenback as trading moved offshore following a shocking 5% decline in Chinese stocks. Meanwhile gold and oil prices fell almost 3% prompting investors to unload commodity currencies. Experiencing its biggest decline since August, speculation debt ridden Ireland was seeking aid before European finance ministers meet on November 16 saw the Aussie fall to 0.9825 against the US Dollar early in the evening. Offshore the Aussie headed towards 0.9950 against the US Dollar recovering some ground as investors collected their cool. The Australian Dollar opens this week below parity at 0.9860 against the US Dollar following an upward swing in US consumer confidence drew investors away.
We expect a range today of 0.9830-0.9950
New Zealand Dollar: After flirting with the 0.8000 US Dollar handle earlier in the week, the Kiwi fell as much 1%, dipping below 0.7700 against the US Dollar offshore, as investors flew from risky high yielding assets. Chinese stocks fell 5% sending shock waves around the world rocking up volatility while stronger Chinese inflation stoked the possibility of further restrictive measures by the Asian giant in the future. Overnight the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey showed American consumers growing more optimistic about economic conditions rising from 67.7 to 69.3, the highest since June. The Kiwi starts the day at 0.7150 versus the US Dollar ahead of New Zealand's retail sales reports.
We expect a range today of 0.7690-7770
Great British Pound: The Pound fared well against the US Dollar rallying offshore to an intra-day high of 1.6180 against the Greenback. Recent improvements in GDP estimates and strong inflation reports have pared back expectations of further quantitive easing by the Bank of England. Investors will look towards this week's British inflation, claimant count change and retails sales figures to confirm or deny the central bank's position as government budget cuts to eliminate almost half a million jobs may still weaken the economy and sap consumer- price pressures in the foreseeable future. The Sterling opens today at 1.6150 US Dollars. Meanwhile the Sterling position strengthened against the Aussie and Kiwi buying 1.6370 and 2.084 respectively.
We expect a range today of 1.6300-1.6440
Majors: Growing speculation about an Irish bailout has led to sharp losses in the currency. At the beginning of the week, one euro was worth more than 1.4 versus the U.S. dollars and now it is worth less than 1.37. The market has speculated Ireland may receive a EUR 80 billion bailout as early as next week while the Irish Times claims that informal contacts have been made between euro area governments to prepare them for activation of the European Financial Stability Facility. Although the Irish government is denying any plans for a rescue package, Germany allied with investor concerns pushing for aid to calm volatility sent borrowing costs of debt-laden countries to record highs.
Data releases
AUD: New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
NZD: Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m
JPY: Prelim GDP q/q, Prelim GDP Price Index y/y
GBP: Rightmove HPI m/m
EUR: Trade Balance
USD: Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories m/m
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