Daily forex forecast - 15/12/2010
Australian Dollar: Reports from Australia revealed business confidence had declined from the previous month while the number of new homes for the 3rd quarter contracted by -13.2%. The Aussie dipped to an intra-day low of 0.9940 against the Greenback upon release of the data. Following the release the pair traded tightly, hovering between 0.9940-0.9965 before moving offshore. Demand for risk improved overnight following economic data indicating continued improvements in economic conditions around the world. Improvements in European sentiment and strong US retail sales figures bolstered investor confidence, propelling the Aussie to a fresh 4 week high of 1.002 US Dollars. This morning the Aussie opens at 0.9984 US Dollars ahead of Westpac’s consumer confidence report
We expect a range today of 0.9940-1.010
New Zealand Dollar: New Zealand retail sales figures disappointed investors, contracting -2.5% in November. Economists had estimated sales to contract -0.8% from the previous month. The Kiwi slipped below 0.7500 US Dollars following the release before reversing all of its losses overnight. Once again the Kiwi rode the demand wave for high yielding assets, challenging the Greenback again at 0.7575, following reports US consumers had grown more confident in their spending. Sale for retailers in the US grew 1.2% in November for the 5th consecutive month while optimism among small businesses climbed to the highest level in three years. Today the Kiwi starts the day buying 0.7520 US Dollars
We expect a range today of 0.7480-0.7580
Great British Pound: The Pound came to life offshore continuing its gradual upward climb against the US Dollar ahead of inflation reports. The Sterling peaked early in the session at 1.5910 versus the Dollar. Consumer prices accelerated to a six-month high in November rising 3.3% from the same period last year after a 3.2% increase in October. The unexpected figure adding pressure on policy makers to rein in cost pressures. However, growth in US sales figures in the lead up to the holiday season prevented the Pound from holding onto it 1.5900 lever, falling to 1.5740. Meanwhile the Pound continues to decline against the Aussie. This morning the Pound opens at 1.5790 versus the Aussie and 2.0966 against the Kiwi.
We expect a range today of 1.5740-1.5885
Majors: The Euro attempted to tackle 1.3500 US Dollars overnight following improvements in economic sentiment in the region. ZEW’s monthly survey reported a jumped in positive outlook, increasing to 15.5 for December from 13.8 the moth prior. Meanwhile Industrial production for October in Japan contracted -2%. The Dollar held onto 83.50 Japanese Yen during Asia before sliding down to 82.82 Yen offshore. Solid sales figures out of the US strengthened the Greenback against both Yen and Euro. The Dollar grabbed 83.85 Japanese Yen while forcing the Euro down towards 1.3360.
Data releases
AUD: Westpac Consumer Sentiment
NZD: No Data Today
JPY: Tankan Manufacturing Index
GBP: Unemployment rate NOV
EUR: Euro-Zone Employment 3Q
USD: CPI NOV, Industrial Production NOV
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