Daily Forex Forecast 15/2/2011
Australian Dollar: Strong underlying Chinese economic data spurred the Aussie's rally to 1.0070 against the Greenback overnight. Although headline trade balance figures for China printed at a 9 month low of 6.5 billion, underlying import and export growth was strong for January.
[Get this delivered to your inbox for FREE. Subscribe to our daily Markets Newsletter.]
Exports grew 37.7%, outshining estimates of 22.5%, while imports surges 51% compared to 27% estimated. Australian home loans were also on the upside increasing 2.1% in December.
The Aussie pared back gains, sliding to an overnight low of 1.0002. This morning the Aussie opens at 1.0026 ahead of the RBA's minutes.
We expect a range today of 0.9990-1.0085
New Zealand Dollar: Both headline and core retail sales figures fell short of expectations in New Zealand. Core sales in December contracted -1.2%, well beyond market estimates of -0.3%. Quarterly sales data also declined -0.4% in the 4th quarter. The New Zealand Dollar initially slid to 0.7550 US on release of its sales data before economic news from China propelled the Kiwi to 0.7590. Offshore, concerns for European finances and political tension in the Middle East and Africa drifted the Kiwi towards 0.7540. Today the Kiwi starts the day buying 0.7566.
We expect a range today of 7520-0.7620
Great British Pound: The Pound, like several other major currencies, rallied against the US Dollar as China officially surpassed Japan as the world's second largest economy. The Sterling made several attempts to hold onto 1.6075 US late in Asia before moving offshore.
With no data to support the Pound, earlier gains were reversed sinking back to 1.5980 on concerns for European debt and the fall out of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's resignation. This morning the Pound opens buying 1.5991 Aussie and 2.1182 Kiwi.
We expect a range today of 1.5930-1.6045
Majors: The Euro remained capped at 1.3560 versus the US Dollar as economic data from China lifted risk appetite in Asia. Moving offshore, news European finance ministers had ruled out immediate steps to tackle the regions debt crisis saw the Euro fall out of favour. Also making headlines speculation emerged attempts to restructure German state-owned West LB AG, are faltering come as a blow at a time where Ireland's main opposition party called for a renegotiation of the country's bailout conditions. Dropping again for the third consecutive day, the Euro hit a fresh monthly low of 1.3427 US. In Japan, GDP figures shrank by -1.1% driven down by slowing exports. The figure beat wide expectations of a -2.0% contraction in the Japanese economy. Better than expected Japanese GDP and encouraging economic data from China pushed the US Dollar as low as 83.08 Yen before reconsolidating around 83.30.
Data releases
AUD: RBA Minutues
NZD: No Data Today
JPY: Industrial Production (Dec)
GBP: CPI, CB Leading Index
EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Flash GDP(Q4)
USD: Retail Sales