Daily forex forecast 16/02/2011
Australian Dollar: Investors sold the Aussie aggressively after minutes from the Reserve Bank's meeting said 'the evident caution in household spending would, if it persisted, reduce the pressure on prices that might normally be expected in an economy with very strong terms of trade and limited spare capacity' and have 'provided additional time for the board to assess at future meetings.' These comments suggest an increase in official cash rates may not occur in the near term. Offshore lower than expected growth in Europe's two major economies and mixed US data weighed the Aussie towards its 0.9950 support level against the Greenback.
We expect a range today of 0.9885-1.0010
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar followed the Aussie lower during much of the offshore session, tumbling from 0.7585 to 0.7505 US Dollars. Weaker US consumer spending added momentum to the Kiwi's downward trend. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% as investors sold off risky assets, prompting the Risk sensitive New Zealand Dollar to hit an 8 week low. With no announcements due today the Kiwi opens lower for the 6th consecutive day at 0.7515 US.
We expect a range today of 0.7465-0.7550
Great British Pound: Inflation figures in the UK met expectations with annual consumer prices increasing 4.0% in January. The Pound touched 1.6100 versus the US Dollar before slipping back to 1.6020 after economic growth in the Euro- Zone failed expectations of 0.4% expanding 0.3% in the previous quarter. Softer sales figures from the US propelled the Sterling to 1.6170 before finding support at 1.6125 US. This morning the Pound opens higher against the Australian and New Zealand Dollar, buying 1.6210 and 2.1468 respectively.
We expect a range today of 1.6155-1.6320
Majors: Economic growth in the Euro-Zone expanded 0.3% in the last quarter, missing estimates of 0.4% by economists. The news saw the Euro slip to a intra-day low of 1.3460 against the US Dollar before regaining enough strength to break 1.3540, testing 1.3550 on a few occasions. German economic sentiment climbed to 29.5 according the ZEW survey, bolstering investor interest in the Euro. US bias returned to the market when US retail sales missed the mark coming in at 0.3% versus expectations of 0.5%, while manufacturing in February leaped to 15.43 from 11.92 the previous month. Continued improvements in the US economy strengthened the Dollar against the Yen. The Greenback climbed to an 8 week high of 83.90 against the Japanese Yen.
Data releases
AUD: Motor Vehicles Sales (Jan)
NZD: No Data Today
JPY: No Data Today
GBP: Jobless Claims & Unemployment (Jan), Consumer Confidence (Jan)
EUR: Spain GDP (Q4)
USD: PPI (Jan)
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