Daily Forex Forecast 16/03/2011
Australian Dollar: News of another explosion at the Fukushima nuclear power station sent shockwaves through global markets. With the Nikkei plunging more than -10%, the largest one day decline since 1987, risk liquidation accelerated weighing the Aussie down. Initial reactions saw the Australian Dollar slide to 0.9925 against the Greenback.
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Reports of the nuclear plant explosion followed minutes from the RBA revealing policy makers expected slower household borrowing to offset mining investment. Moving offshore the Aussie extended its losses sinking to its lowest level in 2 months. The Aussie rebounded back above 0.9900 from its low of 0.9812 following positive statements from the US Federal Reserve. This morning the Aussie opens buying 0.9918 US.
We expect a range today of 0.9800-1.0000
New Zealand Dollar: The New Zealand Dollar fell against most of its major counterparts after yet another explosion at the Fukushima power station intensified fears of a radiation leak triggering a flight from risky assets. The Kiwi depreciated 1.8% to 0.7265 against the US Dollar offshore from 0.7400 amid aggressive selling throughout world markets. Statements the US Federal Reserve viewed economic recovery in the US to be on a 'firmer footing' trimmed the Kiwi's losses. This morning the Kiwi opens at 0.7314 US.
We expect a range today of 0.7250-0.7350
Great British Pound: The Pound, as with most currencies, declined against the US Dollar amid concerning developments in Japan. UK stocks extended losses for the fifth day retreating 79.96 points, or 1.4%, as investors opted for safer assets after Japanese Prime Minister Kan confirmed further radiation risks from the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant are increasing.
The disastrous event weighed the Sterling down to 1.5980 versus the Greenback. Indications the US Federal Reserve is becoming less dovish while re-affirming their $600 billion bond purchase plan, improved sentiment with the Pound tackling 1.6100 late in the US session. Meanwhile the Pound starts today buying 1.6237 Aussie and 2.1973 New Zealand Dollars.
We expect a range today of 1.6140-1.6330
Majors: In Asia, Japanese equities plunged more than 10% after reactor 4 at the Fukushima nuclear power plant exploded dimming prospect of a quick and relatively painless rebuilding and recovery process. "The radiation level has risen substantially. The risk that radiation will leak from now on has risen," said Prime Minister Naoto Kan.
The US Dollar spiked above 82 Yen when news broke of the explosion. Overnight the Yen strengthened for the third day as expectations for repatriate inflows increased, beating the Greenback down to 80.62 Yen. Meanwhile the Euro fell through 1.3900 against the US Dollar as the European STOXX 600 slumped 2.3%. A decline in the German ZEW economic sentiment did not help investors already depressed by the developments in Japan. Given the current climate of uncertainty investors have started to speculate that the ECB may have to delay its proposed rate hike.
Data releases
AUD: No Data Today
NZD: Consumer Confidence (1Q)
JPY: BSI Large Industry & Manufacturing Index (1Q)
GBP: Claimant Count Change (Feb), Unemployment Rate (Jan)
EUR: CPI (Feb)
USD: Building Permits (Feb), PPI (Feb)
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