Daily forex forecast - 16/11/2010
Australian Dollar: Motor vehicle sale figures in Australia for October decreased by -0.6% compared to the month prior. The Aussie fell to a 2 week low as the Euro weakened over European sovereign debt concerns and Chinese monetary policy fears. Moving offshore the Aussie rebounded from it's0.9810 low against the Greenback climbing more than 1% to breaking through its 0.9900 barrier. The overnight rally in risk triggered as stocks gained, increasing demand for higher yielding currencies. Despite Commerce Department data showing U.S. retail sales had gained 1.2%, the most in seven months in October, investor sensitivity tuned into the decline of Empire State Manufacturing Index (-11.1) and increases in business inventories which indicate that the recovery in the U.S. economy is still uneven. Today the Aussie starts the day at 0.9840 against the US Dollar.
We expect a range today of 0.9815-0.9960
New Zealand Dollar: New Zealand September quarter retail sales figures surprised the market growing 1.6% from the previous month. It seems consumer spending ahead of an increase in goods and services tax on October 1 may have been under-estimated by the market with median forecasts expecting only 1.1% increase. Stronger than expected consumer spending combined, income-tax cuts and injections of capital for rebuilding after the worst earthquake in eight decades rocked Canterbury province are expected to bolster New Zealand's recovery. Although investors sold off risk late in Asia, market sentiment improved overnight increasing demand for higher-yielding currencies pushing the Kiwi to a intra-day high of 0.7775 against the US Dollar. This morning the Kiwi opens at 0.7725 versus the US Dollar.
We expect a range today of 0.7650- 0.7805
Great British Pound: The Pound drifted below 1.6050 against the US Dollar overnight after the Rightmove House Price Index fell by 3.2% in November after a 3.1% increase in October. Lack of demand had British home sellers cutting average asking prices in England and Wales by the biggest monthly drop since December 2007. The Euro Zone's precarious position and growing realization that a rescue of Ireland could cost UK taxpayers and additional 7 Billion pounds as well as expose UK banks to potential write-offs on Irish government debt boosted demand for the relative security of ye old faithful Greenbacks. This morning the Pound opens lower versus the US Dollar at 1.6050 while sitting at 1.6300 against the Aussie and 2.0780 Kiwi.
We expect a range today of 1.6220-1.6415
Majors: The Euro entered its 10th consecutive day of losses against the US Dollar on speculation that Ireland may be forced to assume an EU bailout package as the country's credit continued to come under assault in global capital markets. A September trade surplus of 2.4 billion for the Euro zone did not halt the single currency's decent towards a six week low against the Greenback as investors focused on the pressing matter at hand. While Ireland continues to resist pressure from the European Union to accept aid from the 750 billion emergency aid fund created in May for its public budget, the European Central bank has suggested Ireland would be able t use the emergency reserve to 'support' Irish banks and push their capital above regulatory targets. "The problems of the Irish banking sector are not only problems of liquidity but also in some cases problems of capital," ECB Vice President Constancio said in Vienna.
Data releases
AUD: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
NZD: No Data today
JPY: Tertiary Industry Activity m/m
GBP: CPI y/y, BOE Inflation Letter
EUR: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, CPI y/y
USD: PPI m/m, TIC Long-Term Purchases, Industrial Production m/m
Newsletter: Subscribe to receive this report daily