Daily Forex Forecast 17/02/2011
Australian Dollar: The Australian Dollar dropped to 0.9970 against the US Dollar paring earlier gains in Asia when ratings agency Moody's said it had placed the nation's four largest banks on review for possible downgrade.
Currently Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, ANZ and NAB hold Moody's second highest rating of Aa1. The Aussie quickly recovered offshore gaining 30pts as it battled to hold parity advancing on the back of strong corporate earnings and higher commodities. This morning the Aussie opens at 1.0031 US.
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We expect a range today of 0.9990-1.0080
New Zealand Dollar: Credit ratings for New Zealand's four major banks have been put up for review by Moody's in a statement released by the credit rating agency. ASB, National Bank of New Zealand, ANZ National Bank and Westpac New Zealand's Aa2 long term senior unsecured debt and deposit ratings stand for a possible downgrade. The announcement washed away all gains made by the Kiwi in Asia, falling from 0.7560 to 0.7510 against the Greenback. The New Zealand Dollar quickly resurfaced, climbing almost 50 cents before swinging back towards 0.7500. Stronger economic data for the US strengthened demand for higher yielding assets. This morning the Kiwi opens buying 0.7555 US.
We expect a range today of 0.7500-0.7600
Great British Pound: overnight the Sterling tumbled down to 1.5985 versus the US Dollar. Unemployment in the UK remained at 7.9% however an unexpected 2400 increase in jobless claims weighed on the Pound. The softer employment figures for January backing the BOE's decision to remain watchful for the current time. Interest rate expectations dampened when central bank's inflation report noted inflation is likely to fall within the bank's target in two years and Governor Mervyn King stating 'it may be many quarters before we do anything'. This morning the Pound opens today buying 1.6030 Aussie and 2.1296 Kiwi.
We expect a range today of 1.5965-1.6090
Majors: The Greenback weakened against most of its major counterparts as stronger economic data boosted demand for risky assets. Construction accelerated with 562,000 building permits approved and 596,000 housing starts. Production increased in January for a 5th consecutive month with manufacturing output increasing 0.3% while producer prices climbed 0.5%. The Euro rallied to 1.3586 from 1.3460 US as the optimistic outlook for the US economy spurred investor risk appetite. Meanwhile the US weakened to 83.47 Japanese Yen.
Data releases
AUD: No Data Today
NZD: Manufacturing Performance Index (Jan), Consumer Confidence (Feb)
JPY: Leading Index (Dec)
GBP: No Data Today
EUR: Current Account (Dec), Contraction Output (Dec), Consumer Confidence
USD: CPI (Jan), Leading Indicators (Jan), Philly Fed (Feb)
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